Apple: Three Items To Watch

I’ve been tracking the performance of Apple for nearly twenty five years and chronicling the twists, turns, successes and changes at the company for most of that time. Over the past several months I’ve taken time to look at the company in several different ways and today I will mention three items I consider important for long-term shareholders of the company. These items are the share repurchase program, Apple’s rising R&D expenses and the growth in the company’s Services revenue segment. 

I consider these three items important as Apple faces yet another period of change and eventual transformation. The pace of iPhone units sales growth has slowed and the company faces challenges in all three of its major device lines. Yet for long-term shareholders there’s more to Apple than this fiscal year’s performance. I will explain more in this article.

Today’s coverage of Apple in the financial and popular press frequently mentions speculation about the upcoming iPhone refresh, rumors about changes in the iPhone’s form expected in the fall of 2017 and the decline in iPhone unit sales compared to last fiscal year’s nearly 37% unit sales growth rate. But there’s much more to Apple than the iPhone franchise and while unit sales will always be in flux, the three items I’m mentioning today demonstrate a trend that may lead to higher shareholder value over the next several years. 

Apple’s Share Repurchase Program

The graph below illustrates the impact of Apple’s massive share repurchase program on the fully diluted share count as reported each quarter. Since reaching a peak of 6.637 billion shares on a split-adjust basis in the September quarter of FY2012, management has reduced the fully diluted share count as of the end of the March quarter to about 5.541 billion shares or by about 16.50% in under four years. 

As of the end of the March quarter Apple had exhausted $117 billion of the $175 billion in authorized share repurchases. The remaining $58 billion in authorized repurchases are scheduled to be completed by the end of March 2018. Notwithstanding the debt acquired to fund the massive share repurchase program, Apple’s cash position remains the envy of much of corporate America. Net of debt the company’s cash and equivalents position stood at nearly $164 billion at the end of the March quarter. 

For long-term shareholders the reduction in the fully diluted share count boosts the company's reported earnings per share due to the fact there are fewer shares by which reported net income is divided to determine the eps results. It’s my view net income growth is the primary driver of Apple’s share price appreciation. In periods of rising net income, the share repurchase program will amplify the impact of rising net income on the earnings per share results. In addition to a beneficial impact on earnings per share results, the fewer number of shares may mean a larger dividend per share in the years ahead.

The Earnings Trend Is Again Apple’s Friend

On Tuesday, January 27th, Apple announced December quarter results with record revenue of $74.599 billion, record net income of $18.024 billion and record earnings per share of $3.06. Beyond those superlatives, Apple also set a global record for quarterly net income of any publicly-traded enterprise in history. The depth, spread and scope of Apple’s December quarter success caught even the most bullish Wall Street analysts by surprise. 

The good news for Apple shareholders is the company’s December quarter results are not a crescendo but merely the first fiscal episode in a new epoch of outsized enterprise success.

The Earnings Trend Is Again Apple’s Friend

The graphs below illustrate the dramatic change in the company’s revenue and earnings trends delivered in the December quarter. 

Against a backdrop of foreign exchange headwinds, Apple’s recognized revenue on a sequential basis rocketed higher by 77.1% in the period. On a year-over-year basis, revenue rose 29.53% The December quarter delivered the highest rate of year-over-year revenue growth since the March quarter of FY2012, nearly three years ago. On  a sequential basis, the rate of revenue growth was the fastest rate of growth in the study period of just over six fiscal years or twenty five fiscal quarters. 

On a year-over-year basis, Apple’s 47.83% rise in earnings per share was the fastest rate of growth since the March quarter of FY2012 and on a sequential basis, the fastest rate of growth in the twenty five fiscal quarters under study. Aided by the ongoing $90 billion share repurchase program, Apple’s record net income of $18.024 billion translated into earnings per share of $3.06 in the December quarter. In the period net income rose 37.88%.

The Ever-Changing World Of Apple

On Saturday, December 27th, Apple’s first quarter of FY2015 drew to a close. While management has guided to revenue of between $63.5 billion and $66.5 billion in the period, the current Wall Street revenue consensus estimate of $66.46 billion is already pushing against the upper threshold of management’s revenue guidance range. 

Apple’s Global Expansion

Apple manages its business on a geographic basis. The graph below illustrates the regional revenue mix for the fiscal year ended in late September. 

Although in aggregate revenue rose a fairly modest 6.95% in the fiscal year, revenue growth by region varied widely with Greater China and Japan again delivering the fastest rates of growth. The graph below illustrates Apple’s revenue growth rates by region for the fiscal year.

Both Greater China and Japan delivered double-digit revenue growth rates in the period while Europe delivered revenue growth at a rate greater than the aggregate rate of growth for the company as a whole. The Americas region, Apple's largest revenue region, realized revenue growth of 3.95% in the fiscal year with negative growth in the Rest of Asia Pacific region.

Changes In Regional Revenue Reporting

Concurrent with the start of the December quarter (FQ1 2015), Apple is eliminating Retail as an independent revenue region. Results for the retail stores will be incorporated in the revenue totals for the geographic region in which the stores are located. For the year, Apple reported 437 retail stores of which 40% were located outside the United States. On a national basis with retail store revenue geographically assigned, the United States represented 37.7% of revenue and China represented 16.8% of revenue in FY2014. Japan may become a third national region to contribute 10% or more of Apple’s reported revenue. 

Apple: Management Needs To Vision Tomorrow More Than Explain Today

On Monday, January 27th, Apple announced results for the company’s December quarter (FQ1 2014). The company reported year-over-year revenue growth of $5.65% to $57.594 billion and earnings per share of $14.50 versus $13.81 in the prior-year quarter. Net income at $13.072 billion was lower than the results in FQ1 2013 by $6 million. Earnings per share rose 5.0% due to 45.765 million fewer shares in the fully diluted share count. 

The Demise of the iPod Line

Contributing to Apple’s unimpressive revenue growth rate in the December quarter was a 54.60% year-over-year decline in iPod revenue on a 52.29% decline in unit sales. The iPod touch, which represents greater than 50% of the product line’s revenue, was last updated in September 2012. iPod sales have been subsumed by the popular iPhone line with iPod capabilities and there is declining consumer demand for specific-use digital music players. Year-over-year, iPod revenue fell by $1.17 billion dollars.

The Resurgent Macintosh

In the midst of Apple’s 30th anniversary Macintosh celebration, the product line turned in a strong 19.11% unit growth rate against a soft prior-year comparison. The 4.837 million units sold was the fourth highest quarterly unit sales total in the product line’s history and the highest unit sales performance in two years. For the quarter, the Macintosh delivered 11.10% of Apple’s reported revenue. 

Apple’s Reliance on the iPhone and iPad

No matter the strong Macintosh unit sales numbers for the quarter, Apple’s reliance on the iPhone and iPad lines for growth continued to rise in the December quarter. The graph below illustrates the fact that 76.34% of reported revenue in the quarter was sourced from iPhone and iPad sales.

iPhone and iPad Unit Sales Growth

On a combined basis, iPhone and iPad unit sales rose 9.07% in the December quarter and combined revenue rose 6.37% net of the impact of the increase in deferred revenue per unit sold.The graph below illustrates the combined unit sales for the iPhone and iPad lines over the most recent seventeen fiscal quarters. Among the challenges for Apple is the fact iPhone and iPad unit sales growth rates have begun to slow dramatically.

Apple's iPhone Paradox

On Monday, September 23rd, Apple announced the company had sold more than nine million 5c and 5s handsets in the first weekend of sales. The surprisingly high unit sales number for Apple's newest iPhone handsets caused analysts to rewrite and reconsider their narratives on Apple's prospects for early success.  Speculation turned to talk of high channel supply of the iPhone 5c as the source of the expectedly high unit sales number. Analysts had previously cautioned Apple's apparent unwillingness to release a lower-cost handset for emerging markets would dampen the sales growth potential of the new models. 

Confusing matters even more, on September 23rd Apple filed a Form 8-K reiterating revenue and gross margin guidance for the September quarter and indicating revenue would be near the top end of the revenue guidance range of $34 billion to $37 billion and gross margin would be near the top end of the guidance range of 36% to 37%.

The Issue of iPhone Channel Supply

Apple ended the June quarter with about 11 million iPhone handsets in the global channel while also reporting an increase in component supplies. In the June quarter iPhone sell-through was greater than reported unit sales because Apple reduced channel supply in the quarter from about 11.6 million units at the end of the March quarter. In other words, more iPhones were sold to end users in the June quarter than Apple reported as unit sales. 

In the September quarter one year ago, Apple reported ending channel supply of 9.1 million units. At the time, iPhone 5 supplies were constrained and ending channel supply was below the desired range of 4 to 6 weeks of supply on a look-forward basis. 

Because Apple chose to replace the iPhone 5 after its one year in the market with two new models, the global channel could absorb as many of the new handsets as Apple could deliver. There's no issue with high iPhone 5c handsets shipments. Apple has always reported as units sold shipments to resellers when ownership of the devices change hands, not when those handsets are sold by resellers to consumers. Additionally, the iPhone 5c is sold in five different colors. This necessitates more product in the market as sales begin.

Apple's iPhone Paradox

Selling more than nine million new handsets while reiterating September quarter revenue guidance with millions of 5c handsets awaiting sales to customers might create an apparent paradox. But there's no mystery or conflict in the numbers. Apple's decision to focus its new handset efforts on the top tiers of the smartphone market and forego an aggressive effort to gain market share in emerging markets at this time is in line with Apple's approach to the company's primary product markets.

The graph below illustrates Apple's revenue mix over the first three quarters of FY2013:

iPhone revenue represented 53.8% of the company's reported revenue total over this 39-week period that ended in late June. In FY2012, iPhone revenue represented 50.3% of the company's reported revenue total. In the first three quarters of the fiscal year, iPhone revenue rose15.7% versus 10.7% revenue growth for the company as a whole. In FY2013 which ended on September 28th, revenue from iPhone sales may have reached 55% or more of Apple's revenue total. The iPhone remains Apple's principal revenue and operating income driver. Emerging markets can wait for now as Apple seeks gross margin recovery and a return to net income growth. 

Apple: Where From Here?

On Tuesday, July 23rd, Apple announced results for the company's third fiscal quarter of  2013. The company surprised Wall Street with year-over-year iPhone unit sales growth of 20% to 31.241 million units despite a 600,000 unit reduction in global channel supply to 11.0 million units. iPhone unit sell-through in the quarter was about 31.84 million units. 

iPad unit sales were a disappointment in the period, falling year-over-year by 14.23% to 14.617 million units. Management emphasized during the quarterly conference call that reported iPad unit sales were negatively impacted by a 1.9 million unit swing in channel supply year-over-year. Meanwhile, Mac unit sales fell 6.62% to 3.754 million units. In the June quarter Apple did not refresh its MacBook Pro line, but refreshed the MacBook Air line only. One year ago both the MacBook Air and the MacBook Pro received a June quarter update. 

For the quarter, revenue rose a scant 0.86% to $35.323 billion and net income fell from $8.824 billion in the June quarter last year to $6.90 billion in the quarter ended June 29th. 

Despite the stronger than expected iPhone unit sales numbers and the fact Verizon and AT&T activated more iPhones in the June quarter than all other makes of smartphones combined, the quarter's results highlight Apple's many challenges moving forward. While revenue in the Americas region rose 12% in the June quarter, Greater China delivered a 14% decline in revenue and Apple's Retail revenue segment had a $10 million year-over-year revenue setback despite more stores open for business. 

Apple: Where From Here?

In today's article I will detail changes that are occurring in Apple's revenue flow and why the company's road to earnings recovery may take some long and winding turns.   

Apple As An Eco-System 

Apple has moved beyond the scope of being primarily a device maker. In the June quarter revenue from the company's iTunes/Software/Services revenue segment rose nearly 25% to $3.99 billion and represented 11.3% of reported revenue. The graph below illustrates the growth in what was the company's fastest growing revenue segment in the period. The fairly consistent revenue growth in the iTunes/Software/Services segment is contrasted in the graph with the seasonal revenue performance of Apple's Accessories segment that experienced a 4% revenue decline in the recent quarterly period.

Of the $3.99 billion in segment revenue, $2.4 billion was sourced from iTunes alone. Since the opening of the Apple app store, $11 billion has been paid through to developers. According to management, half of the $11 billion was earned by developers within the past 12 months. iTunes billings, separate from recognized iTunes revenue, reached $4.3 billion in the June quarter.

Apple's March Quarter Madness

Saturday, March 30th will mark the end of Apple's second quarter of FY2013. With near certainty, the March quarter will represent the first quarter of negative net income growth in the company's recent history. It may also represent the low point in a multi-quarter cycle of reduced rates of revenue and earnings growth. 

In this article I will analyze Apple's growth performance since the first quarter of FY2011, why earnings growth will most likely turn negative in the current quarter and the ways in which Apple will begin to return to stronger rates of revenue and earnings growth as early as the June quarter of the current fiscal year. Apple's "March Quarter Madness" is the beginning of the end of a cycle of lowered rates of growth.

Apple's Revenue and EPS Growth Rates
The graph below illustrates Apple's rates of revenue and earning per share growth since  FQ1 2010.

Since FQ3 2012, Apple's rate of year-over-year earnings per share growth has fallen below the rate of revenue growth. This trend will continue through the March quarter due to the extraordinary high gross margin achieved in the first half of last fiscal year. 

Apple's Gross Margin Performance

The Graph below illustrates Apple's gross margin performance since FQ1 2010. 

It's not a coincidence Apple's gross margin reached extraordinary high levels in the first six months following the release of the iPhone 4S. The iPhone 4S is the second handset in the iPhone 4 series and delivered record gross margin due in part to Apple's ability to apply the fixed costs of iPhone 4 series production over a much larger number of units sold. 

In the recent December quarter (FQ1 2013), the first full quarter of iPhone 5 sales, Apple's gross margin outcome was nearly identical to the outcome in FQ1 2011, the first holiday quarter of sales for the iPhone 4 handset. Looking forward, Apple's gross margin performance will improve following the release of the second iPhone 5 series handset. Economies of scale on iPhone 5 series handset production will improve dramatically as the next iPhone 5 series handset finds its way to market. The trend is vividly displayed in the graph above. The first full quarter of release of the iPhone 4 handset (FQ4 2010) represents the low point for gross margin over a more than three-year period.

View Apple By Seasons, Not By Quarters

On October 25th, Apple announced earnings for the 13-week period ended September 29, 2012. For the quarter, Apple reported revenue growth of 27.22% to $35.966 billion and earnings per share growth of 22.98% to $8.67 per share. The earnings per share outcome in the quarter was negatively impacted by accelerated recognition of foreign exchange-related losses. 

In contrast to the September quarterly results, for the fiscal year ended the same date, Apple reported revenue growth of 44.58% to $156.508 billion and earnings per share growth of 59.54% to $44.16. 

View Apple By Seasons, Not By Quarters

The charts below illustrate the quarterly changes in year-over-year and sequential rates of revenue and earnings growth for the most recent twelve fiscal quarters. Apple's high annual growth rates are now concentrated in a six-month season comprised of the company's December and March quarters. The June and September quarters have comparatively slower rates of revenue and earnings growth and represent their own six-month revenue and earnings season. 

Apple's quarterly results are essentially static snapshots of a fast-moving enterprise. Results are best viewed based on annual growth rates and the year-over-year growth rates of the company's two and distinctly different revenue growth seasons.  

Apple's quarterly revenue growth rates FQ1 2010 - FQ4 2012:

Apple's quarterly earnings per share growth rates FQ1 2010 - FQ4 2012:

Apple's Annual Revenue and Earnings Growth Rates

The charts below illustrate Apple's dramatic rates of revenue and earnings growth over the most recent seven fiscal years. The annual rates of revenue and earnings growth will continue to be far more uniform than the rates of quarterly growth depicted in the graphs at the top of the article. The highly seasonal nature of Apple's revenue activity will continue not only because of the refresh cycle for the Apple iPhone, which comprised over 50% of the company's FY2012 revenue, but the influence of changes in the company's regional revenue mix as well.

Apple's annual revenue FY2005 - FY2012:

Apple's annual EPS FY2005 - FY2012:

Apple, iOS Devices and the Precipice of Success

On August 11th, I published my updated AAPL 12-month price target of $950 per share. Since that date, AAPL has moved from $620.73 to $700.09 per share. On Friday the shares set an all-time intraday high of $705.07 as the rollout of the iPhone 5 began in the US and select markets around the globe. Apple's newest iPhone handset is an early and unqualified success. 

I've mentioned several times in prior articles I expect the iPhone 5 to sell on a scale not seen before even by iPhone standards. Apple's early September announcement of a September 12th iPhone event essentially froze the domestic smartphone market while competitors scrambled to ship product to carriers before the iPhone 5's release on September 21st. Through at least the holiday quarter, there isn't a competing handset on the market that will generate anywhere near the iPhone 5's global appeal. 

In addition to the release of the iPhone 5, the iPhone 4 is now available on AT&T, Sprint and Verizon at a post-subsidy price of $0. This is the first time all three major domestic carriers have an iPhone available at that pre-tax price. The iPhone 4 at its new price will deliver a boost to unit sales over the next four fiscal quarters. 

Just prior to the iPhone 5's retail availability, Apple released iOS 6, the company's latest iteration of its operating system for the iPhone, iPad and iPod touch. No matter the early complaints about Apple's first major effort at mapping services, iOS 6 downloads and installations can be counted by the tens of millions. With all of the attention lavished on the iPhone 5, it's the iPhone and iPad combined that is driving the company's share price and market cap significantly higher.

iOS Devices As A Global Franchise

At my Posts At Eventide web presence I provide graphs and table data illustrating and detailing unit sales by quarter for each of Apple's major product lines. Today I am publishing a chart-based overview of iPhone and iPad sales to illustrate Apple's high rates of revenue and earnings growth depend on more than the iPhone alone. iOS devices have become a global franchise. Because Apple does not break out the unit sales of the iOS-based iPod touch, I am including only the iPhone and iPad product lines in today's analysis. 

The graph below illustrates the growth in iPhone and iPad sales over an eleven-quarter period beginning with the first quarter of FY2010 (fourth calendar quarter of 2009):

From a low of 8.737 million iPhone units sold in FQ1 2010 prior to the original iPad's release, to a high of 52.478 million iPhone and iPad units sold two years later in FQ1 2012, in seven of the eleven quarters covered, year-over-year unit sales growth reached or exceeded 100%. The accompanying table data is available at Posts At Eventide through the link posted above.

June Quarter Results: Apple's Melancholy Moment

On Tuesday, Apple reported underwhelming results for the three-month period ended June 30, 2012. For the quarter, Apple reported revenue of $35.023 billion and earnings of $9.32 per share, representing 22.58% revenue growth and eps growth of 19.57%. The fiscal quarter's outcome, against expectations of much stronger growth, represents Apple's melancholy moment and a slow-growth period in a six-quarter era of exceptional growth that began with the first quarter of the current fiscal year. 

Guidance and The Economy

For the current quarter, management offered conservative guidance of $34 billion in revenue and $7.65 in earnings per share. In the June quarter, all of Apple's major product lines, including the iPhone and the iPad, had unit sales results that were impacted by a challenging global economy, particularly in Europe. The iPhone's uninspiring 28% unit sales growth was also influenced by consumer expectations of a pending refresh of the product line. 

Apple's quarterly results represent a static snapshot of a fast-moving company. As much as the June quarter results were a disappointment, the outcome reveals both challenges and opportunities in the fiscal quarters ahead. 

Gross Margin

In the first six months of the current fiscal year, revenue growth zoomed forward at a 66% pace and earnings per share rose 104%. Apple's average gross margin during the six-month period was 45.9%. In the June quarter, gross margin dropped to 42.8% due to the impact of currency fluctuations, the lower price on the iPad 2 and a change in model mix on iPhone sales. Apple's gross margin moving forward may remain closer to the June quarter's outcome rather than return to the very high gross margin reported in the first two quarters of this fiscal year. Moderation in gross margin will move the rate of earnings per share growth closer to the rate of revenue growth in future quarters. 

In the first six months of the current fiscal year, the iPhone represented 55% of Apple's revenue total and the popular iPhone 4S delivered very attractive gross margin. In the June quarter the iPhone represented just over 46% of revenue.  The iPhone's smaller percentage contribution to the quarter's revenue total and the lower price on the iPad 2 lead to a sequential drop in gross margin from 47.37% to 42.8%. Although the successor to the iPhone 4S will generate industry leading gross margin, the change in the company's overall revenue mix and anticipated higher costs for the new flagship handset will influence gross margin throughout Apple's next fiscal year. 

Operating Expenses

Operating expenses, inclusive of stock-based compensation, remained under 10% of revenue in the June quarter. Operating expense discipline continues to positively impact the percentage of revenue that flows to the company's net income line. In the June quarter, about one-third of revenue flowed to the operating income line and about one-quarter of every revenue dollar landed on the net income line.

The iPhone Product Cycle

Throughout the conference call with analysts, management repeatedly mentioned the impact of consumer expectations of an imminent iPhone product line refresh on unit sales in the quarter. Consumers will, by the millions, postpone or delay iPhone purchases and iPhone handset upgrades in favor of waiting on the release of new models.

There are a number of factors that determine or influence the release dates for new iPhone handsets. These factors include production capacity, component supplies, planned releases of iOS updates and contracts with iPhone carriers. None of these factors are changed by consumer expectations for the release of a new iPhone.

At this time, all points lead to a fiscal first quarter (fourth calendar quarter) release of the successor to the iPhone 4S. The iPhone 4S will remain the company's flagship iPhone handset for about 12 full months. Very high rates of revenue growth will be realized in the first two quarters of next fiscal year due to the release of a new flagship iPhone and the expected lower prices on the iPhone 4 and iPhone 4S models. Between now and the release of a new iPhone handset, overall revenue growth will be held in moderation even with a strong September quarter for the Mac and iPad product lines. 

Apple Price Target: $640 Per Share

Today I am posting my 12-month price target for Apple of $640 per share. This target price forecasts a 63% advance in the share price within twelve months and tracks slightly below my anticipated 66% growth in earnings per share in Apple's current fiscal year. 

Apple's Share Price Today

Apple closed trading on Friday, October 21st, at $392.87. At that price the shares traded at 14.19 times trailing 12-month earnings of $27.68 per share. The lowly price-earnings multiple stands in stark contrast to the company's 66% revenue growth in the fiscal year ended last month and the corresponding 82.7% growth in earnings per share. At the end of the fiscal year, Apple had cash and marketable securities of $81.57 billion or almost $87 in cash standing behind each outstanding share. The company's cash per share provides a strong foundation for share price appreciation at a rate in tandem with the anticipated rate of growth in earnings per share.

Apple's languid September quarter revenue growth of 39% and eps growth of 52% reversed the recent upward momentum in the share price.  While the quarter's outcome was indicative of Apple's revenue growth challenges in fiscal quarters immediately preceding the annual iPhone product refresh, it was not indicative of anticipated average rates of revenue and earnings growth in the four fiscal quarters immediately ahead.

The Cyclical Nature of Apple's Revenue and Earnings Growth

Each of Apple's four fiscal quarters have strong seasonal or product cycle influences on their respective revenue and earnings growth outcomes. For example, the current fiscal quarter (FQ1 2012) includes a fourteenth shipping week that occurs once every six years and encompasses the immediate post-Christmas shopping week. The quarter will also realize above average rates of revenue and earnings growth due to the release of the iPhone 4S early in the quarter. While FQ4 2011 was negatively impacted by the pending iPhone model refresh, the current quarter will benefit from the release of the new iPhone handset. 

Apple 12-Month Price Target

There were a number of challenges revealed in Apple's September quarter results I will address later in this column. Those challenges are amplified by a slow-growth global economy and increasing competition in the smartphone device market. Based on Apple's FY 2011 performance, anticipated global growth in iPad sales and the successful launch of the iPhone 4S, I've established a 12-month price target of $640 per share. 

This 12-month price target of $640 anticipates FY 2012 revenue growth of 55% and eps growth of 66%. It also anticipates a price-earnings multiple of no more than 14 times forecast FY 2012 earnings of $46 per share. 

Apple's Share Price Performance

The chart and table data below illustrate and detail Apple's share price performance over the most recent twenty months. It includes the share price as of Friday, October 21, 2011 and the closing share price on the first trading day of the month following the release of earnings dating back to February 1, 2010.

Unit Sales In The Apple Industrial Era

Introduction
Apple is at the threshold of becoming the largest US-based technology company and may soon become the largest technology company in the world. This post details the unit sales for the Apple iPhone, iPod and Macintosh personal computers over the most recent eleven fiscal quarters and iPad unit sales for the five fiscal quarters the product has been in commercial release. Apple's dynamic growth is fueled by three major product lines while the Apple iPod, once Apple's flagship product line, slowly fades into history as the product that sparked the company's renaissance and set the stage for what is now the Apple industrial era.

Over the past five years Apple's frenetic rates of growth have been derived from a changing mix of products leading to global leadership in the personal technology markets. This changing mix of products provides for years of dynamic growth as the company expands its global reach, expands the global presence of Apple's retail stores and expands product distribution into previously under served regions of the world.

In Apple's current fiscal year (FY 2011) ending in September and the fiscal year beginning at the end of that month, unit sales of the iPhone and iPad will generate more than two-thirds of the company's reported revenue. Both of these products were introduced to the market within the past five years. The popularity of Apple's iOS-based devices, including the Apple iPod touch, has masked the fact that the Macintosh line of personal computers has become a more than $20 billion global business and in FY 2012 close to 20 million Macintosh computers may be sold.

The Apple iPhone

There's no disputing the fact the iPhone is Apple's biggest revenue product. In the recent June quarter, sales of iPhones and related products and services generated about 46.6% of Apple's $28.571 billion in reported revenue. Over the most recent four fiscal quarters the Apple iPhone generated 44.75% of Apple's $100.322 billion revenue total. The June quarter's 142% unit sales growth and 150% revenue growth for the popular iPhone were well above analyst expectations. 

The chart below illustrates the consistent unit sales growth of the Apple iPhone with the June quarter (FQ3) of FY 2010 the obvious exception due to the unique issues surrounding the illicit publication of iPhone 4 photos prior to the product's release and Apple's aggressive pull back on shipments of the iPhone 3GS ahead of the iPhone 4's commercial debut in June of that year. In that quarter more iPhones were sold to customers than Apple shipped into the market for sale, reducing channel inventory in preparation for the iPhone 4's debut. 

I expect the release of the iPhone 5 to spark sales of over 30 million units (all iPhone models combined) within the 90 days of the iPhone 5's release date. A pending deal with China Mobile will propel unit sales to levels not seen before even by iPhone standards.

The AFB AAPL FQ3 Unit Sales Estimate Index

The Apple Finance Board (AFB) is home to many AAPL traders, investors and Apple product enthusiasts. Among the members of the AFB are well know independent analysts Daniel Tello (deagol), Horace Dediu (aysmco), Turley Muller and Andy Zaky. I serve as the moderator of the AFB under the DawnTreader moniker. 

The AFB AAPL FQ3 Unit Sales Estimates

Each fiscal quarter active members of the AFB are polled for their estimates of Apple's quarterly performance based on product unit sales and financial outcome. Yesterday I posted the revenue and earnings estimates of AFB members participating in the index for the three-month period ended in late June (Apple's FQ3 2011). Today I am posting the unit sales estimates that underpin the anticipated financial results. 

On average the 30 active AFB members participating in the June quarter index estimate Apple will report the following unit sales results by product line. Unit sales numbers are in thousands:

AFB Member AAPL FQ3 Unit Sales Estimate Averages:

Macs	4,330		(24.7% Unit Sales Rise)
iPods	8,335		(11.4% Unit Sales Decline)
iPhones	17,602		(110% Unit Sales Rise)
iPads	8,325		(155% Unit Sales Rise)

Notes On The Numbers:

Macintosh Unit Sales: In the first six months of the current fiscal year (September and March quarters) Macintosh unit sales have risen 25.2%. The AFB member average estimate for Mac unit sales in the June quarter is consistent with the recent unit sales growth trend. 

iPod Unit Sales: iPod unit sales have continued to decline. In the first six months of the current fiscal year iPod unit sales fell more than 10%. The mass adoption of smartphones such as the Apple iPhone with iPod functionality have reduced demand for single-use digital music players. The iPod touch, an iOS-based device, is now the largest unit sales component of the Apple iPod line. 

iPhone Unit Sales: In the March quarter iPhone unit sales rose 113% inclusive of the 155% domestic unit sales growth rate influenced by the release of the Apple iPhone on the Verizon network. In the first six months of the current fiscal year iPhone unit sales rose 99.5%. The average estimate of AFB members suggests the March quarter unit sales growth trend will continue in the June quarter.

Last year Apple significantly reduced iPhone unit shipments in the June quarter ahead of the  release of the iPhone 4, leading to favorable conditions for year-over-year unit sales gains in the June quarter this year. 

iPad Unit Sales: The June quarter is the first quarter in which prior-year iPad unit sales are available. Apple's ability to have met demand for the iPad 2 in the June quarter will have a significant impact of the quarter's unit sales results that will be released later this month.

For more information on Apple product unit sales results please see my article published on May 8th titled Apple: Ten Quarters of Product Unit Sales.

Robert Paul Leitao

Disclosure: The author is long AAPL shares

Why I'm Bullish on Apple

Over the past several weeks I've focused much of my analysis work on the performance elements that underpin Apple's extraordinary rates of revenue and earnings growth. Meanwhile, Apple's share price (AAPL) has been trapped in a comparatively narrow and underwhelming trading range since the all-time high of $364.90 was set in intraday activity on February 16th of this year.  

There's much speculation why Apple is currently trading, even after today's strong advance, almost 5% off the all time high at Tuesday's closing price of $347.83 per share. From index rebalancing to hedge fund ploys, most active AAPL traders have their own views as to the factors impacting the share price. But none of these factors in any way impact the company's fundamental strengths nor limit the long-term potential of the share price. I consider AAPL's current trading price to represent a short-term dip below an established trading range prior to a strong, bullish advance. 

The Factors Supporting AAPL Share Price Appreciation

Rising Revenue, Rising Earnings Per Share: Apple remains in an era of extraordinary revenue and earnings growth. During the first six months of FY 2011 Apple's revenue and earnings growth rates have accelerated due to the popularity of the Apple iPad and the continuing success of the Apple iPhone. In the first six months of FY 2011 Apple's revenue rose 76.2% and eps moved higher by 83.2%. Constraints on iPad 2 supplies in the March quarter limited the revenue and earnings growth rate from moving even higher. 

For FY2011 (ending in late September) I forecast Apple's revenue will reach or exceed $112 billion and eps will reach at least $27.50 per share. Based on my forecasts Apple is currently trading at a multiple of only 12.65 times the current fiscal year eps estimate. The revenue growth chart, including my FY 2011 revenue estimate, illustrates the pace of Apple's revenue growth over a six-year period. Over 60% of Apple's revenue in FY 2011 will be sourced from products that did not exist in the marketplace as recently as four years ago today. The markets for the Apple iPhone and especially the Apple iPad have yet to be fully realized and the markets for both products will continue to expand. 

Even more dramatic than the pace of revenue growth is the pace of growth in earnings per share. Form eps of $1.55 in FY 2005 to estimated eps of $27.50 in FY 2011.

Apple: Ten Quarters of Product Unit Sales

The objective of the Posts At Eventide web presence is to benefit readers seeking to understand Apple's financial performance and to serve as a repository of information and analysis for other independent AAPL analysts preparing quarterly estimates and share price forecasts. 

This is one of a series of posts designed to provide data and historical context for the development of quarterly unit sales estimates for Apple's major hardware device product lines.  This post details the unit sales for the Apple iPhone, iPod and Macintosh personal computers over the most recent ten fiscal quarters and iPad unit sales for the four fiscal quarters since the product has been in commercial release. 

The Apple iPhone

There's no disputing the fact the iPhone is Apple's biggest revenue product. In the recent March quarter the sales of iPhones and related products and services generated almost 50% of Apple's $24.667 billion in reported revenue. Led by a 155% increase in domestic unit sales, the popular smartphone performed better than most analysts expects with a 113% increase in global unit shipments to 18.647 million. 

While there is seasonality in the iPhone's unit sales performance, the outcome is more often determined by product supply rather than seasonal variations in demand. Apple's inability to produce sufficient quantities of iPhones to meet global demand following the product's annual refresh cycle has hampered unit sales in the third and fourth fiscal quarters of the year.  

The chart below illustrates the consistent unit sales growth of the Apple iPhone with the June quarter (June quarter) of FY 2010 the obvious exception due to the unique issues surrounding the illicit publication of iPhone 4 photos prior to the product's release. Apple pulled back on shipments of the iPhone 3GS ahead of the iPhone 4's commercial debut. 

		Unit Sales	iPhone	Sequential	YOY
		FQ1 ’09	4,363	-36.69%	88.47%
		FQ2 ’09	3,793	-13.06%	122.72%
		FQ3 ’09	5,208	37.31%	626.36%
		FQ4 ’09	7,367	41.46%	6.89%
		FQ1 ’10	8,737	18.60%	100.25%
		FQ2 '10	8,752	0.17%	130.74%
		FQ3 ’10	8,398	-4.04%	61.25%
		FQ4 '10	14,102	67.92%	91.42%
		FQ1 ’11	16,235	15.13%	85.82%
		FQ2 '11	18,647	14.86%	113.06%