Apple: There And Back Again

On April 23rd, Apple released the company's results for its second fiscal quarter of 2013. Reported revenue of $43.60 billion represented a March quarter record and the third highest quarterly revenue performance in the company's stored history. However, March quarter earnings per share fell to $10.09, down 18% year-over-year. In today's article I will review Apple's March quarter performance, the recently announced cash distribution plan and the ways in which Apple is setting a firm foundation for future growth. 

Apple: There and Back Again

The graphs below illustrate Apple's recent rates of revenue and earnings per share growth compared with the quarterly rates of growth since the first quarter of FY2010.

In the March-ending period, Apple reported its slowest rate of quarterly revenue growth in years. Since the third quarter of FY2012, quarterly revenue growth has slowed to a pace last seen in FY2009 and the peak of the Great Recession. In the March quarter, Greater China, previously Apple's fastest-growing revenue region, reported only 7.54% revenue growth. That was below the 11.27% revenue growth for the company as a whole. For the current June quarter, Apple has guided to revenue of between $33.5 billion and $35.5 billion and hinted at the possibility of a negative revenue growth quarter. In the June quarter one-year ago, Apple reported revenue of $35.023 billion.

Despite the fact Apple will almost certainly report yet another successive year of record revenue, the company's performance is overshadowed by expectations of flat earnings growth this fiscal year and present-day market preoccupation with the company's massive amounts of cash.

In the March quarter, Apple reported its second consecutive negative eps growth quarter and its first negative net income growth quarter in years. In the recent December quarter, earnings per share fell 0.4% with a modest $14 million rise in net income. In the March quarter, earnings per share fell 17.9% to $10.09 from $12.30 in the prior-year period with a corresponding drop in net income of $2.075 billion. 

Apple has returned from a three-year cycle of extraordinary rates of revenue and earnings growth following the Great Recession that was fueled by strong geographic expansion, the introduction of the iPad and fast rates of growth in the global smartphone market. This is an end to a chapter, not the end of Apple's long-term growth story. 

Apple's March Quarter Madness

Saturday, March 30th will mark the end of Apple's second quarter of FY2013. With near certainty, the March quarter will represent the first quarter of negative net income growth in the company's recent history. It may also represent the low point in a multi-quarter cycle of reduced rates of revenue and earnings growth. 

In this article I will analyze Apple's growth performance since the first quarter of FY2011, why earnings growth will most likely turn negative in the current quarter and the ways in which Apple will begin to return to stronger rates of revenue and earnings growth as early as the June quarter of the current fiscal year. Apple's "March Quarter Madness" is the beginning of the end of a cycle of lowered rates of growth.

Apple's Revenue and EPS Growth Rates
The graph below illustrates Apple's rates of revenue and earning per share growth since  FQ1 2010.

Since FQ3 2012, Apple's rate of year-over-year earnings per share growth has fallen below the rate of revenue growth. This trend will continue through the March quarter due to the extraordinary high gross margin achieved in the first half of last fiscal year. 

Apple's Gross Margin Performance

The Graph below illustrates Apple's gross margin performance since FQ1 2010. 

It's not a coincidence Apple's gross margin reached extraordinary high levels in the first six months following the release of the iPhone 4S. The iPhone 4S is the second handset in the iPhone 4 series and delivered record gross margin due in part to Apple's ability to apply the fixed costs of iPhone 4 series production over a much larger number of units sold. 

In the recent December quarter (FQ1 2013), the first full quarter of iPhone 5 sales, Apple's gross margin outcome was nearly identical to the outcome in FQ1 2011, the first holiday quarter of sales for the iPhone 4 handset. Looking forward, Apple's gross margin performance will improve following the release of the second iPhone 5 series handset. Economies of scale on iPhone 5 series handset production will improve dramatically as the next iPhone 5 series handset finds its way to market. The trend is vividly displayed in the graph above. The first full quarter of release of the iPhone 4 handset (FQ4 2010) represents the low point for gross margin over a more than three-year period.

Apple's Revenue By Region: There's More To The Company's Story

On February 27th Apple will host its annual meeting of shareholders. While much attention is being paid to the company's holdings of cash and marketable securities and the recent sell-off in the share price, very little attention is focused on the company's organic growth. 

In the December quarter, Apple's  revenue rose nearly 27% on an equal week basis and the company reported record revenue and net income in the 13-week period. The impact of "share creep" from stock-based compensation reduced earnings per share $.06 year-over-year despite a $14 million gain in net income and the 14-week prior-year quarter reduced the rate of reported revenue growth to about 17.7%.

Due to extraordinarily high gross margin in the December and March quarters of FY2012, Apple will report negative earnings per share growth in the first six months of the current fiscal year.  Although I expect sequential margin recovery from the December quarter's 38.63% through the March quarter of next fiscal year, Apple's rate of earnings per share growth in FY2013 will be the lowest rate of growth in the company's recent history. But there's much more to Apple's growth story.

Apple's Growth By Revenue Region

Apple manages its businesses on a geographic basis. With the release of the company's December quarter results, management created an additional revenue region called "Greater China" and now reports revenue from other countries in the former Asia-Pacific revenue region as "Rest of Asia Pacific." 

Illustrated below is the percentage of recognized revenue delivered by each of Apple's revenue regions in the last fiscal year. 

Last fiscal year, both the United States and China represented more than 10% of Apple's reported revenue. The graph below illustrates revenue by region in the fiscal year and the corresponding rates of regional revenue growth.