Saturday, July 2, 2011

The AFB AAPL FQ3 Estimate Index

The Apple Finance Board (AFB) is home to many AAPL traders, investors and Apple product enthusiasts. Among the members of the AFB are well know independent analysts Daniel Tello (deagol), Horace Dediu (aysmco), Turley Muller and Andy Zaky. I serve as the moderator of the AFB under the DawnTreader moniker. 
AFB AAPL FQ3 Estimates
Each fiscal quarter active members of the AFB are polled for their estimates of Apple's quarterly performance based on product unit sales and financial outcome. This article highlights the anticipated financial outcome for the three-month period ended in late June (Apple's FQ3 2011). Tomorrow I will post the unit sales estimates from each index participant by product line that underpin these financial performance estimates. 

On average the 30 active AFB members participating in the June quarter index estimate Apple will report the following results for the company's third fiscal quarter:





AFB Member AAPL FQ3 Estimate Averages:



Revenue


$26,556
69.14%
(% YOY Revenue Growth)
Gross Margin


10,714
40.35%
(% of Reported Revenue)
Operating Expenses


2,542
9.57%
(% of Reported Revenue)
Pre-Tax Income


8,235
31.01%
(% of Reported Revenue)
Tax Expense


1,987
24.12%
(% of Pre-Tax Income)
Net Income


6,248
23.53%
(% of Reported Revenue)
EPS


6.66
89.61%
(% YOY EPS Growth)
All numbers in thousands except per share data.

During the first six months of the current fiscal year Apple's revenue rose 76.2% and eps rose 83.2% in year-over-year comparisons. As a group AFB members estimate the pace of revenue growth in the June quarter will have slowed slightly to 69.14%. However, the pace of eps growth is estimated to rise above the performance of the first six months of the current fiscal year to 89.61%.
Factors Impacting the June Quarter Financial Performance
The June quarter represents the first fiscal quarter in which Apple iPad sales are a factor in the prior-year performance. This factor alone will will have an impact on year-over-year revenue growth. iPad unit sales and the resulting revenue were not a factor in the prior-year financial performance comparisons in the December (FQ1) and March (FQ2) quarters.
Apple has effectively managed the growth in operating expenses relative to revenue growth. The company's ability to keep this major expense segment under 10% of reported revenue and the rate of growth of operating expenses well below the rate of growth of revenue is having a significant and positive impact on the company's earnings per share performance. AFB members are estimating the percentage of revenue that flows to the net income line will reach above 23.5%.
Robert Paul Leitao
Disclosure: The author is long AAPL shares

A table listing the individual estimates of the 30 Apple Finance Board members participating in the AAPL June quarter financial performance index is posted below:







Gross

Other
Pre-Tax
Tax
Net

Member Name
Revenue
Margin
OpEx
Income
Income
Expense
Income
EPS









blis
26,549
10,673
2,389
26
8,310
2,019
6,290
6.71
turleymuller
26,199
10,669
2,475
125
8,319
2,038
6,281
6.70
Nagrani
27,050
10,955
2,500
100
8,555
2,053
6,501
6.92
Red Shirted Ensign
26,300
10,520
2,800
0
7,720
1,775
5,945
6.34
Gregg Thurman
26,957
10,774
2,528
60
8,306
1,936
6,370
6.79
cdodge
26,310
10,577
2,600
90
8,067
1,940
6,127
6.52
Luigitartaglino
26,424
10,752
2,650
80
8,182
1,955
6,226
6.61
AHHA
26,083
10,616
2,583
73
8,106
1,913
6,193
6.60
mjuarez
26,920
11,064
2,611
60
8,513
2,086
6,427
6.85
ChasMac77
26,497
10,731
2,500
70
8,301
1,976
6,325
6.73
Tetrachloride
26,574
10,629
2,600
60
8,089
1,958
6,132
6.54
PurpleApple
27,389
11,229
2,543
35
8,721
2,137
6,584
7.01
Apple II+
27,500
11,000
2,600
84
8,484
2,125
6,359
6.77
pats
27,033
10,948
2,617
75
8,406
2,001
6,405
6.83
westech
27,912
11,165
2,600
0
8,565
2,055
6,509
6.95
Mercel
26,599
10,759
2,570
45
8,234
2,038
6,196
6.59
michelc
26,144
10,457
2,440
100
8,117
1,851
6,266
6.67
deagol
26,070
10,736
2,589
82
8,229
2,016
6,213
6.62
snoozzzer
24,889
9,582
2,500
75
7,157
1,753
5,404
5.79
madmaxroi
26,758
10,837
2,622
70
8,285
1,988
6,297
6.70
CdnPhoto
26,715
10,980
2,380
27
8,627
2,088
6,539
6.97
Dennyhil
27,050
11,050
2,510
80
8,620
2,075
6,545
6.98
Mav
26,790
10,930
2,545
50
8,435
2,057
6,378
6.78
adamthompson3232
26,374
10,734
2,604
72
8,202
1,948
6,254
6.64
Andy M. Zaky
27,320
10,983
2,600
80
8,463
2,031
6,432
6.84
petertje
25,645
10,130
2,500
75
7,705
1,888
5,817
6.20
mbeauch
25,694
10,534
2,400
75
8,209
1,986
6,223
6.62
Mikedmvp
26,902
10,841
2,440
0
8,401
2,033
6,368
6.77
asymco
25,400
9,855
2,470
70
7,440
1,860
5,580
5.95
DawnTreader
26,619
10,714
2,500
72
8,286
2,022
6,264
6.67









Average
26,556
10,714
2,542
64
8,235
1,987
6,248
6.66
All numbers in thousands except per share data.



7 comments:

  1. Help - Questions: In the area of Finance and marketing, what is the highest degree achieved for each of the AFB members? Most importantly, which have obtained their CFA? The purpose being to develop a confidence level for this group in aggregate and individuals in particular. As your timing precedes the actual earnings calls.. this may be quite valuable. I have not seen any previous predictions for AFB prior to the formal earnings announcements. Any past compilations such as above you can point me to? Thanks!

    Regards,
    Balanced View

    ReplyDelete
  2. Hello. I am a long time "lurker" following the AFB and making some of my own estimates, though I haven't posted on AFB I can help answer part of your questions. Here is a link comparing some of these "amateur" analysts to the pros. They rock! Also included in the resource guide of this blog you can go back and search estimates from previous quarters.

    ReplyDelete
  3. This is a link from the previous qtr for good measure. :) http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2011/01/19/apples-blow-out-quarter-the-bloggers-called-it-the-street-blew-it-2/

    ReplyDelete
  4. Anonymous:

    Thank you for responding to Balanced View's information request. I encourage you to join the AFB and participate in the daily discussions.

    ReplyDelete
  5. We all blew it!

    And I couldn't be happier!

    ReplyDelete
  6. I will do so today! Thanks for the nudge!

    ReplyDelete