The AFB AAPL FQ3 Estimate Index

The Apple Finance Board (AFB) is home to many AAPL traders, investors and Apple product enthusiasts. Among the members of the AFB are well know independent analysts Daniel Tello (deagol), Horace Dediu (aysmco), Turley Muller and Andy Zaky. I serve as the moderator of the AFB under the DawnTreader moniker. 

AFB AAPL FQ3 Estimates

Each fiscal quarter active members of the AFB are polled for their estimates of Apple's quarterly performance based on product unit sales and financial outcome. This article highlights the anticipated financial outcome for the three-month period ended in late June (Apple's FQ3 2011). Tomorrow I will post the unit sales estimates from each index participant by product line that underpin these financial performance estimates. 

On average the 30 active AFB members participating in the June quarter index estimate Apple will report the following results for the company's third fiscal quarter:

AFB Member AAPL FQ3 Estimate Averages:

Revenue			$26,556	69.14%	(% YOY Revenue Growth)
Gross Margin			10,714	40.35%	(% of Reported Revenue)
Operating Expenses			2,542	9.57%	(% of Reported Revenue)
Pre-Tax Income			8,235	31.01%	(% of Reported Revenue)
Tax Expense			1,987	24.12%	(% of Pre-Tax Income)
Net Income			6,248	23.53%	(% of Reported Revenue)
EPS			6.66	89.61%	(% YOY EPS Growth)

All numbers in thousands except per share data.

During the first six months of the current fiscal year Apple's revenue rose 76.2% and eps rose 83.2% in year-over-year comparisons. As a group AFB members estimate the pace of revenue growth in the June quarter will have slowed slightly to 69.14%. However, the pace of eps growth is estimated to rise above the performance of the first six months of the current fiscal year to 89.61%.

Factors Impacting the June Quarter Financial Performance

The June quarter represents the first fiscal quarter in which Apple iPad sales are a factor in the prior-year performance. This factor alone will will have an impact on year-over-year revenue growth. iPad unit sales and the resulting revenue were not a factor in the prior-year financial performance comparisons in the December (FQ1) and March (FQ2) quarters.

Apple has effectively managed the growth in operating expenses relative to revenue growth. The company's ability to keep this major expense segment under 10% of reported revenue and the rate of growth of operating expenses well below the rate of growth of revenue is having a significant and positive impact on the company's earnings per share performance. AFB members are estimating the percentage of revenue that flows to the net income line will reach above 23.5%.

Robert Paul Leitao

Disclosure: The author is long AAPL shares

A table listing the individual estimates of the 30 Apple Finance Board members participating in the AAPL June quarter financial performance index is posted below:

		Gross		Other	Pre-Tax	Tax	Net
Member Name	Revenue	Margin	OpEx	Income	Income	Expense	Income	EPS
blis	26,549	10,673	2,389	26	8,310	2,019	6,290	6.71
turleymuller	26,199	10,669	2,475	125	8,319	2,038	6,281	6.70
Nagrani	27,050	10,955	2,500	100	8,555	2,053	6,501	6.92
Red Shirted Ensign	26,300	10,520	2,800	0	7,720	1,775	5,945	6.34
Gregg Thurman	26,957	10,774	2,528	60	8,306	1,936	6,370	6.79
cdodge	26,310	10,577	2,600	90	8,067	1,940	6,127	6.52
Luigitartaglino	26,424	10,752	2,650	80	8,182	1,955	6,226	6.61
AHHA	26,083	10,616	2,583	73	8,106	1,913	6,193	6.60
mjuarez	26,920	11,064	2,611	60	8,513	2,086	6,427	6.85
ChasMac77	26,497	10,731	2,500	70	8,301	1,976	6,325	6.73
Tetrachloride	26,574	10,629	2,600	60	8,089	1,958	6,132	6.54
PurpleApple	27,389	11,229	2,543	35	8,721	2,137	6,584	7.01
Apple II+	27,500	11,000	2,600	84	8,484	2,125	6,359	6.77
pats	27,033	10,948	2,617	75	8,406	2,001	6,405	6.83
westech	27,912	11,165	2,600	0	8,565	2,055	6,509	6.95
Mercel	26,599	10,759	2,570	45	8,234	2,038	6,196	6.59
michelc	26,144	10,457	2,440	100	8,117	1,851	6,266	6.67
deagol	26,070	10,736	2,589	82	8,229	2,016	6,213	6.62
snoozzzer	24,889	9,582	2,500	75	7,157	1,753	5,404	5.79
madmaxroi	26,758	10,837	2,622	70	8,285	1,988	6,297	6.70
CdnPhoto	26,715	10,980	2,380	27	8,627	2,088	6,539	6.97
Dennyhil	27,050	11,050	2,510	80	8,620	2,075	6,545	6.98
Mav	26,790	10,930	2,545	50	8,435	2,057	6,378	6.78
adamthompson3232	26,374	10,734	2,604	72	8,202	1,948	6,254	6.64
Andy M. Zaky	27,320	10,983	2,600	80	8,463	2,031	6,432	6.84
petertje	25,645	10,130	2,500	75	7,705	1,888	5,817	6.20
mbeauch	25,694	10,534	2,400	75	8,209	1,986	6,223	6.62
Mikedmvp	26,902	10,841	2,440	0	8,401	2,033	6,368	6.77
asymco	25,400	9,855	2,470	70	7,440	1,860	5,580	5.95
DawnTreader	26,619	10,714	2,500	72	8,286	2,022	6,264	6.67
Average	26,556	10,714	2,542	64	8,235	1,987	6,248	6.66

All numbers in thousands except per share data.