The AFB AAPL FQ3 Unit Sales Estimate Index

The Apple Finance Board (AFB) is home to many AAPL traders, investors and Apple product enthusiasts. Among the members of the AFB are well know independent analysts Daniel Tello (deagol), Horace Dediu (aysmco), Turley Muller and Andy Zaky. I serve as the moderator of the AFB under the DawnTreader moniker. 

The AFB AAPL FQ3 Unit Sales Estimates

Each fiscal quarter active members of the AFB are polled for their estimates of Apple's quarterly performance based on product unit sales and financial outcome. Yesterday I posted the revenue and earnings estimates of AFB members participating in the index for the three-month period ended in late June (Apple's FQ3 2011). Today I am posting the unit sales estimates that underpin the anticipated financial results. 

On average the 30 active AFB members participating in the June quarter index estimate Apple will report the following unit sales results by product line. Unit sales numbers are in thousands:

AFB Member AAPL FQ3 Unit Sales Estimate Averages:

Macs	4,330		(24.7% Unit Sales Rise)
iPods	8,335		(11.4% Unit Sales Decline)
iPhones	17,602		(110% Unit Sales Rise)
iPads	8,325		(155% Unit Sales Rise)

Notes On The Numbers:

Macintosh Unit Sales: In the first six months of the current fiscal year (September and March quarters) Macintosh unit sales have risen 25.2%. The AFB member average estimate for Mac unit sales in the June quarter is consistent with the recent unit sales growth trend. 

iPod Unit Sales: iPod unit sales have continued to decline. In the first six months of the current fiscal year iPod unit sales fell more than 10%. The mass adoption of smartphones such as the Apple iPhone with iPod functionality have reduced demand for single-use digital music players. The iPod touch, an iOS-based device, is now the largest unit sales component of the Apple iPod line. 

iPhone Unit Sales: In the March quarter iPhone unit sales rose 113% inclusive of the 155% domestic unit sales growth rate influenced by the release of the Apple iPhone on the Verizon network. In the first six months of the current fiscal year iPhone unit sales rose 99.5%. The average estimate of AFB members suggests the March quarter unit sales growth trend will continue in the June quarter.

Last year Apple significantly reduced iPhone unit shipments in the June quarter ahead of the  release of the iPhone 4, leading to favorable conditions for year-over-year unit sales gains in the June quarter this year. 

iPad Unit Sales: The June quarter is the first quarter in which prior-year iPad unit sales are available. Apple's ability to have met demand for the iPad 2 in the June quarter will have a significant impact of the quarter's unit sales results that will be released later this month.

For more information on Apple product unit sales results please see my article published on May 8th titled Apple: Ten Quarters of Product Unit Sales.

Robert Paul Leitao

Disclosure: The author is long AAPL shares

A table listing the individual estimates of the 29 Apple Finance Board members participating in the AAPL June quarter financial performance index is posted below. Unit numbers are in thousands:

Member Name	Macs	iPods	iPhones	iPads
blis	4,400	7,700	18,800	7,200
turleymuller	4,100	8,700	17,150	8,130
Nagrani	4,500	8,000	17,500	9,500
Red Shirted Ensign	4,494	7,428	16,461	9,166
Gregg Thurman	4,418	8,494	18,460	8,918
cdodge	4,300	8,300	17,200	8,400
Luigitartaglino	4,200	10,000	16,350	8,500
AHHA	4,200	8,600	17,750	7,600
mjuarez	4,300	7,500	17,500	8,700
ChasMac77	4,200	7,400	18,400	7,900
Tetrachloride	4,200	8,500	17,800	8,100
PurpleApple	4,350	7,500	18,000	9,500
Apple II+	4,500	8,550	18,600	8,000
pats	4,364	8,465	18,056	8,900
westech	4,300	8,800	18,600	8,500
Mercel	4,150	8,050	18,200	8,100
michelc	4,864	8,657	16,800	7,848
deagol	4,220	8,700	17,600	7,750
snoozzzer	4,200	8,000	17,000	6,500
madmaxroi	4,400	8,200	18,000	8,400
CdnPhoto	4,300	8,100	17,500	8,800
Dennyhil	4,337	9,000	18,900	8,520
Mav	4,290	8,710	18,100	8,070
adamthompson3232	4,427	8,447	17,029	8,100
Andy M. Zaky	4,280	8,800	16,500	10,000
petertje	4,150	8,000	16,200	8,450
mbeauch	4,475	8,600	18,100	7,260
Mikedmvp	4,170	8,850	18,400	8,150
asymco	4,400	8,000	15,100	8,800
DawnTreader	4,410	8,000	18,000	8,000
Average	4,330	8,335	17,602	8,325