Showing posts with label Macintosh. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Macintosh. Show all posts

Saturday, October 29, 2011

Apple's Unrelenting Mac Attack On The PC Market

In Apple's most recent fiscal year ended in September, the company's Macintosh line of personal computers generated revenue of $21.783 billion, representing 20.12% of Apple's $108.249 billion in reported revenue. The Mac's $4.304 billion gain in revenue during the fiscal year represented 10% of Apple's $43 billion in revenue growth. 
Although the $21.783 billion in revenue generated from Mac sales in FY 2011 represented only 20.12% of the company's revenue total, it exceeded Apple's total reported revenue of $19.315 billion in FY 2006, just five years before. In FY 2011, revenue generated from Mac sales exceeded the revenue generated from iPad sales by $1.425 billion. 

Apple's Unrelenting Mac Attack On The PC Market
The graphs and table data in this article illustrate and delineate Apple's unrelenting Mac attack on the PC market. For over five consecutive years the rate of growth in Mac unit sales has exceeded the rate of unit sales growth for the PC industry as a whole. In only one quarter of the most recent twelve fiscal quarters has Apple experienced a year-over-year unit sales decline. In FY 2011 Macintosh unit sales rose about 22.5% to 16.735 million units following a 31% rise in unit sales in FY 2010. 

In the current quarter ending in December, Macintosh unit sales may reach 5 million units for the first time in the company's history, breaking the unit sales record of 4.894 million units sold in the recent September quarter. 

Saturday, March 5, 2011

The Apple Macintosh: Success In The Era of Handheld Devices

The Apple Macintosh: Success In The Era of Handheld Devices
For much of Apple's storied history the company's revenue was generated primarily from one product line - The Macintosh line of personal computers. The release of iTunes for Windows and the opening of the iTunes music store in 2003 transformed a Macintosh peripheral called the Apple iPod into a global success unimagined when the first iPod hit the market in 2001. 
I purchased an Apple iPod soon after it came to market and used it as an external FireWire drive for storing files and copies of the various Web sites I managed. I remember attending a conference for technology educators in 2002 at which the Apple iPod was pitched as a tool for moving curriculum content from one classroom to another and as a portable storage resource for educators. The Apple iPod became for a time Apple's flagship product only to be supplanted by the Apple iPhone and the resurgence of the Mac following the Intel transition. 
From the company's humble beginnings in a Silicon Valley residential garage to today, the Macintosh remains one of Apple's most important product lines. Even in this post-PC era ushered in by the success of the iPod and subsequent development and release of the Apple iPhone and Apple iPad, the Macintosh line of personal computers remains an integral component of the company's continuing revenue and earnings success. 
The Apple Macintosh In The Post-PC Era
On January 29, 2011 I published a post titled The Macintosh Revenue Paradox and on February 5, 2011 I published a post titled Apple Retail Stores: Macintosh Sales Center And More. Today I'm completing this thematic look at the Macintosh line's unit sales and revenue performance with a comprehensive review of the product line's results for the most recent nine fiscal quarters. 
The graph and table data below illustrate and delineate the Mac's consistent revenue growth over the most recent nine fiscal quarters.


Saturday, September 25, 2010

AAPL Target Price: $450 Per Share

At Friday's closing price of $292.32, AAPL has risen about $29 or 11% in two weeks. The good news is there's much more room for the share price to rise. On September 11th in a Posts At Eventide entry titled FY 2011 Analyst Estimates: Why AAPL Is Set To Pop, I noted the modest analyst estimates for FY 2011 that begins this weekend. Wall Street pros are continuing to be conservative in their price targets. Readers of this blog know I have a long-standing price target of $400 by early May. According to Philip Elmer-DeWiit at  Apple 2.0, perennial Apple bull Gene Munster has recently raised his price target to $390 per share and for good reasons.
In evaluating and forecasting Apple one must look beyond the individual product lines and look at the performance of the company as a whole. In fiscal year 2011 Apple may have a second consecutive year of 50% revenue growth and 60%+ growth in earnings per share.
To put Apple's growth in perspective, in fiscal year 2011 revenue from iPad device sales and iPad-related accessories and services may equal or exceed Apple's total reported revenue in fiscal year 2007. Overall, in fiscal year 2011 Apple may reach $100 billion in revenue, a four-fold increase in revenue in four fiscal years. The Apple iPad is obviously a significant factor in Apple's revenue growth. But consider the Apple iPad may represent 25% of the company's FY 2011 revenue take. 
Assembling all of the product and services pieces should yield price targets well above current Wall Street projections and well beyond today's trading range. Continuing analyst upgrades and price target revisions will fuel further gains in the share price no matter the run up in the share price over the past two weeks. 
Apple's two fastest growing product lines (the iPhone and the Apple iPad) are having a pronounced halo effect on Mac sales. Mac unit sales growth for fiscal year 2010 will meet or exceed 30%. Even with the release of the Apple iPad, Mac unit sales will continue to rise at an impressive pace in fiscal year 2011. The iPad is taking revenue share from PC sales in the sub-$1,000 market, a market Apple barely addresses with the $999 MacBook. 
At AAPL's closing price on Friday of $292.32, the shares are trading at a multiple of 22 times trailing 12-month earnings. I expect this multiple to remain fairly consistent over the next twelve months. I am raising my AAPL price target to $450 per share. I expect that share price to be reached no later than early November 2011.




Sunday, August 29, 2010

AAPL Fiscal 4th Quarter Revenue Estimate Preview

AAPL Fiscal 4th Quarter Revenue Estimate Preview
In late July I published an early fourth fiscal quarter estimate for Apple of at least $20 billion in revenue and earnings of $4.30 or more per share.

This weekend I did a more critical review of Apple's fiscal year 2010 performance through the June quarter and revised my ratios to reflect recent trends in Apple's financial performance. This post discusses the revenue component of Apple's fourth fiscal quarter results.

Apple's FQ4 '09 Revenue and Apple's Guidance for FQ4 '10
In the fourth quarter of fiscal year '09 Apple reported revenue of about $12.2 billion. In the June quarter conference call with analysts, Apple's management provided revenue guidance for the September quarter of about $18 billion in revenue or roughly a 47.5% increase in revenue year-over-year. This guidance is obviously conservative based on the company's revenue growth results for the first nine months of the fiscal year.

Apple's FY '10 Growth Rates To-Date
Apple's revenue growth rate for the first nine months of the fiscal year is 46.2%. This is not the number that suggests Apple's guidance is conservative. In the June quarter the Apple iPad contributed to 61.2% growth in revenue while Apple aggressively drained the global channel of iPhone supply ahead of the iPhone 4's release. Absent the iPad's revenue contribution, the year-over-year revenue gain for the nine-month period would have been about 39.1%. This is a respectable rate of revenue growth absent the Apple iPad.

How the iPad Influences FQ '10 Revenue Results
In the June quarter the iPad produced revenue of $2.166 billion, inclusive of 3.27 million units sold and iPad accessories sales. For the fiscal fourth quarter, a reasonable estimate of sales is 6 million units and estimated revenue of $3.975 billion. The iPad alone at 6 million units sold will produce a revenue gain of 32.5% over the prior-year period.

To put the iPad's importance to Apple's September quarter results in an appropriate perspective, one must consider in limited release the device represented 13.8% of the June quarter's reported revenue. At 6 million units sold the Apple iPad will represent between 18% and 20% of the September quarter's revenue results. This does not include revenue contributions from iPad-related iTunes sales activity.


Although available in limited release in the June quarter only, the iPad represents about 4.8% of Apple's reported revenue for the first nine months of the fiscal year and represents 7% of the revenue growth over the same nine-month prior-year period.



Sunday, August 8, 2010

Apple Retail Stores And Mac Sales

Apple Retail Stores And Mac Sales
There's no doubt a correlation exists between the increase in the number of Apple retail store locations and the impressive pace of Macintosh unit sales gains. In the June quarter Apple sold a record 3.472 million Macs. Of that total, 677,000 Macs were sold through Apple's international chain of retail stores.

However, in addition to being points of purchase, the retail stores play an important role as customer service and product education centers. Apple retail store data suggests the bricks and mortar stores are boosting Macintosh sales through other sales channels. 
Increase In The Number of Apple Retail Store Locations
During last month's June quarter conference call with analysts, Apple's management stated the company ended the June quarter with 293 retail stores and anticipated openings 24 new stores during the September quarter. This 8% expansion in retail store locations in one three-month period is not only ambitious, it supports continued strong Mac sales in the current and future quarters.
In the June quarter Apple retail stores hosted an estimated 60.5 million visitors, experienced revenue growth of 73% over the prior-year period and revenue ramped to an average of $9 million per store. Sequentially, retail store sales rose 53% from the March quarter results. The release of the Apple iPad in the June quarter positively impacted both store foot traffic and store revenue results. As primary points of purchase for the Apple iPad, which currently remains in constrained supply, the retail stores benefitted in both customer traffic and sales activity from the release of this popular new device.
The Pace of Mac Unit Sales Growth
During the first three quarters of FY 2010 the year-over-year growth rate in total Mac unit sales has remained amazingly consistent at 33% each quarter. This impressive rate of Mac unit sales growth for the first nine months of this fiscal year portends strong Mac unit sales in the September quarter as well.
Should Apple report a fourth consecutive quarter of 33% year-over-year increases in Mac unit sales, the company will ship over 4 million Macs in the three-month period ending in September and realize roughly a 17% sequential gain in unit sales, just shy of the June quarter's 18% sequential unit sales gain performance.
For now I am estimating Apple's year-over-year unit sales gains in the September quarter will remain consistent with the trend for the first nine months of this fiscal year, establishing yet another quarterly unit sales record and setting a record for Mac sales in a fiscal year of 13.8 million units or more.

Saturday, July 31, 2010

Apple and The Law of Large Numbers

Apple and The Law of Large Numbers
There's been much talk about the perceived limits to Apple's continuing growth due to what's called the Law of Large Numbers. This axiom or financial rule suggests as Apple's revenue grows the chance of sustaining current rates of growth diminishes as more growth is required to maintain the same percentage of growth.
In my view applying the Law of Large Numbers to Apple at this time is a fallacious argument. It might appear valid to casual observers of the company or to those fixed on applying commonly accepted axioms in their investment strategies without regard to the  unique circumstances of a particular enterprise, but for now this axiom or financial rule does not apply to Apple. 
Here's why:
In the June quarter close to 50% of Apple's revenue was derived from products that did not exist in the market just over three years ago. In the September and December quarters, well over 50% of Apple's reported revenue will be derived from iPhone and iPad sales. At the moment there's no practical limit to the size of the market for these two products. 
The Macintosh
Apple's oldest hardware product line, the Macintosh, has sustained a roughly 33% unit sales growth rate over the past three fiscal quarters. In the June quarter operating segments exclusive of the Americas and Apple's international chain of retail stores accounted for just over 41% of unit sales. In Europe alone unit sales increased 46% over the prior year period. While Mac sales continue to grow at a pace greater than industry averages, the Mac still accounts for less than 10% of domestic PC sales and garner a much lower percentage of global market share. Although Apple's offerings in the sub-$1,000 PC market are limited to the Mac mini and nominally the MacBook, the company recorded in the June quarter the largest shipment into the educational channel  in the company's history. This occurred during a period in which public education spending remains severely constricted. 
Apple Retail Stores
At the end of the June quarter Apple had 293 retail stores open for business. During the September quarter Apple will open 24 new stores and store sales and foot traffic continue to accelerate. In the June quarter store revenue increased 73% to $2.578 billion and produced average store sales of $9 million. Foot traffic into the stores reached a record 60.5 million visitors, an increase of 57% over the prior-year period. With an increase of over 8% in the number of stores in the September quarter alone, store sales and foot traffic will continue to rise at record levels for the foreseeable future.
Management reports roughly 50% of the 677,000 Macs sold at Apple retail stores in the quarter were to customer who had never owned a Mac before.
The Apple iPad
In the June quarter and in limited release, The Apple iPad and constituent products accounted for $2.166 billion of reported revenue, representing almost 14% of Apple's reported revenue activity. The Apple iPad remains in constrained supply and even Apple's management does not have a reliable metric to gauge global demand for this currently unique device. 
In the September and December quarters the Apple iPad and constituent products should deliver between 15% and 20% of Apple's reported revenue. This is revenue from a product that was not present in the market as recently as five months ago and will deliver significant year-over-year revenue gains for the next several quarters. 

Sunday, July 25, 2010

AAPL 4th Fiscal Quarter Early Estimates

It's early in Apple's 4th fiscal quarter. But in reviewing the June quarter results (the first quarter incorporating iPad revenue activity) certain revenue and earnings trends have already emerged. 
Yesterday I published a primer titled Understanding Apple's Success Made Easy. I posted the content especially for readers who might not be financially inclined but are curious about Apple's continuing success. Using the June quarter results as an example, roughly $.20 of each revenue dollar flowed to Apple's bottom line. For the September quarter I expect Apple to improve ever-so-slightly on this ratio. 
My expectation is based on an impressive quarter for iPhone sales as Apple continues the global rollout of the iPhone 4 and seeks to replenish channel inventory following the June quarter drawdown. Further, the Apple iPad continues to sell extraordinarily well, and will assist in boosting revenue growth to at least the 61.2% rate experienced in the June quarter.
In the fourth fiscal quarter of 2009 Apple reported adjusted revenue (after removing the impact of deferred revenue accounting for the iPhone) of $12.207 billion. Applying the June quarter's revenue growth rate, fourth fiscal quarter revenue would reach about $19.68 billion. I expect the year-over-year revenue growth to accelerate in the September quarter above the June quarter's pace. The revenue drivers are the iPhone 4 and the Apple iPad. For now I expect the growth in Mac unit sales to remain relatively consistent with the growth rates experienced in the first nine months of the fiscal year at about 33%. As revenue scales higher, operating expenses as a percentage of revenue should decline modestly, providing for a more than proportional gain in earnings from each additional revenue dollar received. 
In the fourth fiscal quarter of 2009 Apple reported sales of 7.367 iPhone units. Although year-over-year iPhone unit sales grew 61% in the June quarter, the rate of unit sales growth in that quarter was well below the growth rates experienced in the first six months of the fiscal year. For now I expect iPhone unit shipments to grow in the September quarter at least 75% over the prior year, supply constraints being the only mitigating matter. 
My early fourth fiscal quarter estimates call for revenue of about $20 billion and eps of at least $4.30 per share. I reiterate my forecast Apple's share price will move above $400 per share by early May 2011 and should surpass $300 per share within the next several weeks.

Robert Paul Leitao

Saturday, July 24, 2010

Understanding Apple's Success Made Easy

Apple is an extraordinarily successful company. I have a hard drive full of spreadsheets to document it and I spend much time each calendar quarter forecasting it. But there's an easier way to understand Apple's success than pouring over news reports, financial reports and traversing the Web on a daily basis looking for insights. 
I'll use the company's most recent quarterly performance as an example. For the three-month period that ended June 26, 2010, Apple reported revenue of $15.7 billion and net income of $3.253 billion dollars. Essentially just over $.20 of every revenue dollar flowed to the company's bottom line. This is after all costs have been paid, including income taxes. Prior to income tax expense Apple reported about $.27 of every revenue dollar flowed to the operating income line. 
In the June quarter Apple reported cost of sales (costs of the products and services sold during the quarter) totaled $9.564 billion or about 61% of each revenue dollar. Conversely, about 39% of each revenue dollar was maintained by the company to apply to other costs and reward shareholders in net profits.
Here's the simple math: Apple retains roughly 40% of each revenue dollar after covering the costs of products and services sold. Of that amount roughly 50% or 20% of each revenue dollar flows to the company's bottom line. 
How Does Apple Create Such High Profits?
Market Segmentation
Apple doesn't compete for product sales, per se. Apple competes for profits. The company carefully picks and chooses its product markets and defines which segments of these markets in which to compete. This is why Apple doesn't manufacture nor sell cheap PCs, cheap phones, etc. Apple competes in select market segments such as the $1,000+ PC market because in that segment Apple has greater pricing control and thus greater opportunities to realize higher profits.
Constituent Products and Services
Products and services such as AppleCare and MobileMe are margin expanders. They increase the yield per customer and increase the gross margin averages on products sold. Apple's focus is not on unit sales of products alone. Apple's focus is on the customer. Customer satisfaction drives sales in Apple's chosen market segments far more than the appeal of a discounted price. 
Apple consolidates revenue from iPhone-related products and services in the iPhone revenue segment. While iPhone unit sales increased 61% in the June quarter versus the prior-year period, segment revenue increased by 74%. The rising revenue relative to unit sales is influenced by revenue created from constituent products and services such as iPhone accessories. 
Content Sells Devices
Sales of the Apple iPod exploded following the opening of the iTunes music store in 2003 and the release of iTunes for Windows. Availability of content drives hardware sales. The iTunes app store is an important component of the iPhone's success. The Apple iPad, a product that set sales records at the time of release, came to market with the iTunes stores providing electronic books, music, movies and apps from the start. The iPad's early success is due in large part to the availability of content for the device. 
In the June quarter Apple reported revenue from "Other Music Related Products and Services" of $1.214 Billion, representing about 7.7% of total revenue. This revenue segment includes iTunes store sales, iPod services and Apple-branded and third-party iPod accessories. Content sells devices and devices subsequently sells more content. 
Apple Retail Stores
Apple's chain of retail stores was the fastest chain to reach $1 Billion in sales in US history. Not only are the stores successful as a retail chain, according to management 50% of Mac buyers at the retail stores are new to the platform. Although we've all seen Mac, iPhone and iPad advertisements, much more would need to be spent on advertising to support product sales absent the retail store chain. In the June quarter the retail stores were the source of 677,000 Macintosh units sold representing almost 20% of all Macintosh computers sold worldwide. 
If All This Represents A Model of Success, Why Don't Competitors Replicate It?
There's an old saying, "It took a lifetime to become an overnight success." The first Apple retail stores opened in May 2001 and the iTunes music store began operations in 2003. Both the Apple retail stores and the online iTunes stores are vital components of Apple's continuing success. Competitors can attempt to match Apple's market approach. But it would require huge investments in retail and online sales infrastructures and the ability to establish and maintain product pricing control. None of those variables come easy and nothing comes cheap. It also requires a great deal of time to establish and build on these sales assets. 
Absent the time, resources and willingness to invest in a long-term strategy to achieve Apple-style success, most competitors focus on price capitulation as a means to move units. This obviously reduces profit per revenue dollar and also reduces the competitor's ability to maintain pricing control over products.
Apple jealously guards its brand image and the company obsesses over product quality and customer satisfaction. Apple's success was not achieved overnight and can not be replicated without years of effort and billions of dollars of investment. While brand value might be considered an intangible by some, brand awareness, a reputation for quality products and strategic selection of market segments to enter are all producing tangible results for the company that will soon become the most highly-valued corporate entity in America. 
Understanding Apple's success requires only simple math. But achieving that success is the culmination of many years of effort and investment. 

Robert Paul Leitao

Saturday, July 17, 2010

AAPL June Quarter Estimates In Detail

The past month has been unbelievably busy at work leaving little time to post or even second guess my AAPL June quarter estimates. Perhaps that's a good thing. My June quarter estimates are based in part on averages and ratios sourced from Apple's most recent quarterly results. For the June quarter, ratios are slightly weighted in favor of the December quarter performance due to the anticipated record revenue from the success of the Apple iPad. 
My June quarter estimates anticipate both record revenue for Apple and record earnings per share. Although I expect record revenue, I did not scale down certain expense ratios relative to revenue as might be realized in better economic times. No doubt there are also costs related to the rollout of the Apple iPad.  Still, I maintained a gross margin estimate below that of the 2nd fiscal quarter but inline with recent trends. 
My forecast of over $16 billion in revenue is influenced by the release of the Apple iPad (obviously) and anticipated growth in iTunes store sales from the proliferation of iOS devices. The estimates are also favorably impacted by expected strong sales of "beyond the box" products and services such as MobileMe and AppleCare. Although strong revenue growth is mostly influenced by hardware device unit sales, revenue from constituent and ancillary products and services benefit gross margins.
Below are my detailed estimates for Apple's June quarter. Unit sales by product line, gross revenue, gross margin and eps calculations have been provided to Philip Elmer-DeWitt for use in his Apple 2.0 quarterly analyst comparisons:
Revenue:
$4.4288 Billion (Macs) - 3.46 million units
$5.9247 Billion (iPhone) - 9.4 million units
$1.4720 Billion (iPod) - 9.2 million units
$2.2275 Billion (iPad)
$2.3800 Billion (iTunes/Other)
$16.433 Revenue Total
$9.7776 Billion (GOGS)  - GM 40.5%
$6.6554 Billion (Gross Margin)
Expenses:
$0.4601 Billion (R&D)
$1.4379 Billion (GS&A)
$4.7574 Billion (Operating Income)
$0.0600 Billion (Other Income)
$4.8174 Billion (Income Before Taxes)
$1.3730 Billion (Provision for Taxes) - 28.5%
$3.4444 Billion (Net Income)
$3.71 Earnings Per Share
928,415,000 Fully Diluted Shares Used In Computation


Robert Paul Leitao

Saturday, July 10, 2010

Final AAPL June Quarter Estimates

My final AAPL June quarter estimates include a revision to my preliminary iPod unit sales estimate. I now estimate June quarter iPod shipments at 9.2 million units, roughly a 10% year-over-year decline.
My final estimates for the June quarter are as follows:
Revenue: $16.433 Billion
EPS: $3.71
iPhone units: 9.40 Million
iPod units:   9.20 Million
Mac units:    3.46 Million
iPad units:   3.30 Million
Gross Margin: 40.5%

Robert Paul Leitao

Saturday, July 3, 2010

Preliminary AAPL June Quarter Estimates

Below are my preliminary estimates for AAPL's June quarter revenue and product unit sales. For now I'm keeping my eps estimate off the public timeline though my estimate has been sent to Philip Elmer-DeWitt for inclusion in the Apple 2.0 analyst comparatives:


Revenue: $16.337 Billion

iPhone units: 9.40 Million
iPod units:   8.60 Million
Mac units:    3.46 Million
iPad units:   3.30 Million


With the inclusion of iPad unit sales in the June quarter results, I forecast a record quarter for AAPL revenue. 




Robert Paul Leitao

Saturday, June 19, 2010

Bunkum and Balderdash: The iPad Is Not A PC

Bunkum and Balderdash: The iPad Is Not A PC 
I took the title to this post from the the words I used to describe the comments in a report from Forrester Research about the Apple iPad as quoted by Philip Elmer-DeWitt in a recent Apple 2.0 column
In the referenced report Forrester Research suggests tablets, such as the Apple iPad, are PCs and in quotes from the report the research firm suggests a market for the Apple iPad essentially doesn't exist because the product's feature set is a mismatch with consumer desires for a PC. I consider Forrester's views on the iPad nothing but bunkum and balderdash. Forrester Research does see a market for tablet PCs. But if the Apple iPad doesn't meet the criteria for what Forrester Research suggests consumers want in a PC, why call it one?
Who Said the Apple iPad is a PC?
The Apple iPad isn't a PC. While the iPad may perform some general computing tasks, it's primarily a content conduit for music, movies and apps. The PC era is over. Based on revenue share and operating profit share, Apple won the PC war similar to the way the company won the digital music player war. The company is continuing to win the smartphone war and has engaged competitors on new turf with the release of the Apple iPad.
Classifying the Apple iPad as a PC represents a conspicuous and common misperception of Apple's market and monetization models. I've said many times before Apple doesn't sell products and services. Apple creates customer relationships and the customer relationships sell Apple products and services. This is among the reasons Apple continues to invest heavily in broadening the reach of its global retail stores franchise. The stores are bricks and mortar community centers for  creating and expanding customer relationships. A customer purchase of an iPad is an extension of that customer relationship similar to the purchase of an iPod, an iPhone or a Mac.
Friday's Record High
No matter Friday's record high for AAPL, the shares continue trading at a modest 23 times trailing 12-month earnings. In mid-May I forecast Apple would realize 50% growth in revenue this fiscal year and in late May I forecast eps growth would reach 65% or more, quickening the 63% growth rate in eps experienced in the first six months of this fiscal year.
What's remarkable about Friday's closing high is the early success of the Apple iPad is not reflected in the share price. The current valuation and price-earnings multiple also does not reflect the expected growth in iPhone sales following reports of overwhelming pre-order demand for the fourth generation of the popular smartphone.
Apple Product Integration
What the iPod, the iPhone and the Apple iPad have in common is content availability for the devices.  Apple's iTunes stores serve essentially as digital community centers for Apple's growing base of product users. Growth in Macintosh unit sales and the Mac's growth in market share and revenue share is a direct outgrowth of Apple's expanding retail store presence, the associated expansion of Apple's customer base and and the ability to share content available through iTunes among the company's hardware devices.  From a revenue share and operating income perspective, Apple has won the PC war with its hardware competitors by providing consumers with the PC of choice for the post-PC era. 
AAPL and The Next Four Quarters
With the introduction of the Apple iPad and the pending release of the fourth generation iPhone, Apple is positioned for three consecutive quarters of record revenue and earnings.  I now forecast fiscal year revenue will exceed $65 billion and earnings will leap well over $15 per share. 
Contributing to Apple's frenetic pace of revenue and earnings growth is the massive expansion of content available through the iTunes stores and the continuing expansion of the company's retail store franchise. The growth in Macintosh unit sales and sales revenue is greatly influenced by the proximity of Apple retail stores, the associated growth in customer relationships and the popularity of Apple's handheld digital devices. iTunes serves as the digital community center that extends the customer relationship beyond the Apple retail stores and provides the content that drives hardware sales. 
In late April I published a 12-month price range forecast for AAPL of $405 - $440 by late April 2011. I will revise this price range forecast following the release of Apple's June quarter results in late July. I expect the share price to move above $300 immediately following the release of Apple's June quarter financial reports. 

Robert Paul Leitao

Saturday, June 12, 2010

The Flash Debate: How Adobe Got It Wrong

There are few companies I've followed as closely over the past 20 years as Adobe Systems. The company's PostScript technology was instrumental in the success of the Macintosh and assisted in bringing commercial publishing power to the desktop computer. Adobe Photoshop and the creative products that now comprise the Creative Suite series of products brought the company into another era of success.
I've followed Adobe Systems from the time fonts were the company's revenue mainstay through the acquisitions of Aldus and Macromedia and its position today as a world leader in desktop creative software solutions. Like many Apple enthusiasts, I have a sentimental attachment for the company that stems from the early days of the Macintosh when the Apple and Adobe worked hand-in-hand to deliver compelling and even revolutionary desktop publishing solutions. 
Like all giant Silicon Valley tech companies Adobe Systems has made its share of mistakes not the least of which was the essential abandonment of the Macintosh platform starting in the mid 90's as the company's preeminent platform for commercial product development. Apple didn't chose to compete with Adobe Systems through the development and release of Final Cut Pro and Aperture because Adobe Systems remained attuned and attentive to Apple's software needs for the Macintosh platform. This lack of attention to Apple and Apple's emerging mobile platform has lead to the latest public spat between the two companies over Adobe Flash.
Adobe's latest strategic error in what has now become a contentious relationship between the two former partners occurred with Adobe's decision not to handle the Flash dispute with Apple in a quiet way. From the start, the battle over Flash is one Adobe Systems can not win. Adobe's highly public expressions of vitriol over Apple's decision to exclude Flash from its iOS platform has only heightened awareness of Adobe's product model vulnerabilities. 
Adobe makes desktop products. Flash was a product add-on from the Macromedia acquisition and found a place as a stopgap solution for the playback of video on the Web. Flash as a mobile playback solution is not how the product was designed and it's a awkward transitional solution as the world's consumers migrate to handheld computing products. It's not as if Adobe hadn't been advised by Apple its product wasn't suitable for the way Apple was optimizing its mobile hardware products. Apple's decisions concerning Flash should not have drawn a response as if Apple's actions were somehow a surprise. It wasn't until the release of the Apple iPad that Adobe chose to raise a public fuss.
Perhaps one of Adobe's biggest mistakes in the Flash feud with Apple is pretending Flash represents a platform that should be a standard impervious to competitive forces and impenetrable in a market moving quickly to ultra-mobile hardware devices. Oddly, it's Adobe's responses to Apple in the Flash feud that has made HMTL5 and its development more commonly known.
Apple will not change its position regarding Flash no matter Adobe's grandstanding and claims Apple is working against "open" standards. In my view Adobe's problems with Apple aren't about Apple and aren't about the absence of Flash operability on iOS devices. The problems are all about Adobe and how the company intends to rework its product model in a dynamic marketplace for computing devices.
When I encounter someone who has recently purchased a new smartphone and the person trumpets the fact the phone can play Flash videos as a deciding factor in the purchase decision I consider it an obvious indication how little the person understands smartphones including the one they just purchased. 
Flash is a transitional stopgap no matter Adobe's wishful thinking. Adobe now trades at a p/e multiple of a bit over 47 times trailing 12-month earnings. The release of CS5 is expected to boost revenue and earnings over the next few quarters. But what will drive Adobe's continuing growth? I suspect the company will quietly embrace the emerging HTML5 standard and move beyond its seeming intransigence on Flash to better optimize the product for mobile devices. But the bigger question is how Adobe intends to transform its product lines to embrace the move away from desktop computing and the PC-centric paradigm the company helped to create. That has nothing to do with Apple and ultimately very little to do with Flash. 


Robert Paul Leitao

Monday, May 31, 2010

Two Million iPads Sold Through May, AAPL Revenue Record Ahead

Earlier today Apple announced two million iPads had have been sold since the product's  April release. I estimate the company is on track to sell three million (or more) iPads in the June quarter, positioning the company for record revenue.
The early success of the iPad sets the stage for three consecutive quarters of record revenue and earnings per share. I expect Mac sales to continue the pace of unit sales growth experienced in the March quarter and for the company to reach $65 billion in revenue this fiscal year with September quarter revenue reaching as high as $20 billion.
In April I posted an updated 12-month price forecast for AAPL and suggested the shares will reach between $300 per share and $325 by the end of July and to move above $400 per share by late April 2011. I stand by those forecasts as the two million iPads sold to-date are in range of my original forecasts and expectations.

Robert Paul Leitao 

Sunday, May 30, 2010

AAPL Earnings and the Value of Rising Revenue

It's a seemingly obvious axiom the greater a company's revenue, the greater its earnings. But this outcome isn't guaranteed. Witness Dell's margin and profit collapse in the consumer PC business. While increasing revenue can and perhaps should lead to rising profits, in a competitive global economy for the sales of goods and services managing operating costs and the costs of products and services are as important as growing revenue.
In the PC and digital device markets product prices remain under pressure. Particular to the PC market, the emergence of the netbook has further pressured prices. Price capitulation for the sake of revenue growth can be a disastrous temptation. In the lower-cost PC market, Acer alone is adept at squeezing profits from razor-thin margins.
In the smartphone market margins have been pressured by promotional giveaways to boost market share and by service providers seeking to combat the popularity of the Apple iPhone. RIM's earnings have been impacted by this promotional activity.  What may be a quick commoditization of the Android handset market will also pressure profits for smartphone market participants. 
I've said many times Apple doesn't sell products. Apple crafts customer relationships and those relationships sell Apple products. Each customer product purchase increases the value of the relationship to Apple and the customer and the customer relationship transcends the value of each individual Apple product purchase transaction. It's why Apple has avoided price capitulation as a means to increase revenue. Apple has historically high gross margins on its hardware products sold. This is due in part to the value of the customer relationships and the transcendent value of that relationship in the minds of customers relative to product price. At the center of Apple's success crafting customer relationships are the company's retail stores. 
The release of the Apple iPad even at aggressive price points maintains relatively high gross margins while the pricing on the product is a competitive defense against potential competitor market intrusion. Though the Apple iPad may not deliver the average 40%+ gross margins Apple has recently experienced at the start, there are other factors positively impacting the iPad's revenue profitability. 
Apple's investment per revenue dollar in research and development has remained relatively constant and hovers around three percent. This is despite a consistent increase in research and development expenditures in support of new products. In year-over-year comparisons, for the first six months of this fiscal year Apple's SG&A (selling, general and administrative) expenditures relative to revenue have dropped slightly suggesting these costs will progressively consume less of each revenue dollar as revenue rises and especially as the Apple iPad boosts revenue significantly over the next several quarters. SG&A expenses are now comprising less than ten cents of each revenue dollar. 
The Apple retail stores are essential to Apple's customer relationship development. They also decrease the expenditures otherwise needed for product advertising and marketing. The operating costs of the stores are mitigated by the retail margin on products sold (Apple products and third-party products offered for sale) and have been proven to increase Apple product sales in the geographic areas surrounding the stores. The stores are also the primary means to introduce Macintosh computers to new customers. Because the retail margin on products sold supports store operations, advertising and marketing costs per revenue dollar will decrease as revenue scales higher. 
One of the challenges in accurately forecasting Apple's earnings per share as revenue rises at a torrid pace is determining the marginal profit value of each additional revenue dollar.  Due to Apple's strong customer relationships, the growth in Apple retail store locations and the company's ability to avoid price capitulation to increase revenue, each additional revenue dollar has a greater incremental contribution to operating income. 
While much attention has been focused on Apple's gross margin ratios and recent decline in tax liability per net income dollar, little attention has been paid to the decline in operating expenses per revenue dollar and the resulting increase in operating income.
In Apple's case rising revenue creates more than a proportional increase in earnings. It's why the rate of Apple's earnings per share growth will continue to exceed the rate of revenue growth and why the Apple iPad and its strong revenue contributions may be the catalyst for three consecutive quarters of record earnings results even if at introduction gross margins on the product are slightly below recent averages for the company. 

Robert Paul Leitao

Wednesday, May 26, 2010

AAPL FY '10 Forecast - $65 Billion in Revenue, $15 (or more) Earnings Per Share

I'm currently preparing my preliminary FQ3 revenue and earnings per share estimates for Apple. With the early success of the Apple iPad and the anticipated demand for the fourth generation Apple iPhone, I'm forecasting Apple will reach $65 billion in revenue this fiscal year and $15 (or more) or in earnings per share.
There are a few noticeable trends emerging to support the 50% fiscal year revenue growth scenario including rising revenue in the operating segment inclusive of iTunes.  Mac unit sales growth remains strong and despite the economic challenges engulfing members states of the EU, Apple's growing presence in Europe should buoy sales.
For the first six months of this fiscal year Apple has earned $7.00 per share. The prospects of Apple earning $8.00 per share (or more) in the second six months of this fiscal year becomes brighter with each Apple iPad sold and the increasing interest in the features expected in the fourth generation Apple iPhone. 

Robert Paul Leitao

Saturday, May 1, 2010

Apple Revenue Growth: Why AAPL Will Surpass $500 Per Share

Within the next three years Apple's share price will surpass $500 and the company's market cap will reach $500 billion or one-half trillion dollars. There's a simple axiom that underlies Apple's continuing success:
Apple doesn't sell products and services. Apple creates customer relationships that sell the company's products and services.
One of the challenges confronting journalists and analysts following the company is a misunderstanding of Apple's global presence. Often Apple is viewed as a company with separate product lines that are assembled quarterly for financial reports. The fact is on a revenue basis Apple is the world's leader in mobile digital devices. Further, Apple's revenue share of the global PC market is far greater than the underlying market share data suggests.
Because Apple's revenue is sourced from global sales of products, focusing on one operating region such as the US will lead to a distorted view of the company's growth potential and the prospects for further share price appreciation. 
As I posted in late April, 51% of Apple's revenue in the March quarter was sourced from operating segments exclusive of the Americas and Apple's global chain of retail stores. Additionally, 46% of Mac unit sales were sourced from these international regions. While the Mac maintains single-digit market share in the US, the company's global revenue footprint continues to expand. In the March quarter about 28% of Apple's revenue came from Mac sales. In unit sales comparisons, the Mac is now dwarfed by the iPhone and will soon be surpassed in unit sales on a quarterly basis by the Apple iPad. Even in its introductory quarter the Apple iPad will surpass the Mac in unit sales performance. 
In evaluating Apple's revenue and earnings performance and in forecasting the company's revenue and earnings potential over the next three years one must consider the product sales halo effect of these economically interdependent products. In a rough look at the product revenue ratios the Mac is equal to the sales of two iPhone or two Apple iPads. 
A customer who purchases a Mac from the experience of using an iPhone or an Apple iPad has tripled Apple's revenue from that one customer relationship. Conversely a Mac owner who purchases an iPhone or Apple iPad has increased Apple's revenue from the customer relationship by roughly 50%. This revenue yield ratio does not include recurring revenue sources such as app, music, movie or book sales, etc. through the iTunes franchise. 
Although Mac sales continue to grow at an impressive pace (33% unit sales gain in the March quarter), the Mac's percentage contribution to Apple's revenue and earnings as a percentage of the totals has been reduced by rising sales of iPhones. This should not diminish the market's understanding of the Mac's importance to Apple. Quite the contrary, it should illuminate the market's understanding of Apple's growing global revenue presence. 
In the March quarter Apple's retail store operations contributed about 12.5% of the company's revenue for the quarter. This seemingly low percentage contribution to revenue from the retail stores is due to the percentage of sales of iPhones globally through contracted partners. Again, the success of the retail store chain is masked by Apple's expanding global revenue footprint. Yet the retail stores provide a vital service in the launch of the Apple iPad. 
Evaluating each product line or revenue segment outside of its interdependent relationship with other product lines or revenue segments will invariably lead to an underassessment of Apple's revenue and earnings growth potential. 
Apple doesn't need commanding unit market share in each of its product segments to fuel revenue and earnings growth. Apple needs to continue creating customer relationships while increasing the yield per existing customer relationship through the sales of products and services. It's the customer relationships that grow the company not the isolated sales of product units. Disassembled and viewed individually, each product line or revenue segment would not appear to justify today's almost $250 billion market cap let alone reveal the potential for a doubling of the share price over the next three years.
For the six-month period ended in March Apple grew revenue by about 40% and earnings per share by 63%. The Apple iPad alone may add 20% to the June quarter's revenue growth. The halo effect of the iPad on Mac sales may increase  the iPad's influence on revenue even more. 
Apple's calendar year 2010 retail store openings will add to unit sales in all product segments while boosting the prospects for Mac and iPad sales in particular. Apple's growing retail store presence in Europe will assist in maintaing strong Mac unit sales gains in the region. 
I reiterate my updated 12-month share price targets and expect AAPL to reach $500 per share within the next three years. The current pace of revenue and earnings growth in light of the release of the Apple iPad should remain unabated for at least the next 12 months supporting further advances in the value of the shares. 

Robert Paul Leitao