The past month has been unbelievably busy at work leaving little time to post or even second guess my AAPL June quarter estimates. Perhaps that's a good thing. My June quarter estimates are based in part on averages and ratios sourced from Apple's most recent quarterly results. For the June quarter, ratios are slightly weighted in favor of the December quarter performance due to the anticipated record revenue from the success of the Apple iPad.
My June quarter estimates anticipate both record revenue for Apple and record earnings per share. Although I expect record revenue, I did not scale down certain expense ratios relative to revenue as might be realized in better economic times. No doubt there are also costs related to the rollout of the Apple iPad. Still, I maintained a gross margin estimate below that of the 2nd fiscal quarter but inline with recent trends.
My forecast of over $16 billion in revenue is influenced by the release of the Apple iPad (obviously) and anticipated growth in iTunes store sales from the proliferation of iOS devices. The estimates are also favorably impacted by expected strong sales of "beyond the box" products and services such as MobileMe and AppleCare. Although strong revenue growth is mostly influenced by hardware device unit sales, revenue from constituent and ancillary products and services benefit gross margins.
Below are my detailed estimates for Apple's June quarter. Unit sales by product line, gross revenue, gross margin and eps calculations have been provided to Philip Elmer-DeWitt for use in his Apple 2.0 quarterly analyst comparisons:
$4.4288 Billion (Macs) - 3.46 million units
$5.9247 Billion (iPhone) - 9.4 million units
$1.4720 Billion (iPod) - 9.2 million units
$2.2275 Billion (iPad)
$2.3800 Billion (iTunes/Other)
$16.433 Revenue Total
$9.7776 Billion (GOGS) - GM 40.5%
$6.6554 Billion (Gross Margin)
$0.4601 Billion (R&D)
$1.4379 Billion (GS&A)
$4.7574 Billion (Operating Income)
$0.0600 Billion (Other Income)
$4.8174 Billion (Income Before Taxes)
$1.3730 Billion (Provision for Taxes) - 28.5%
$3.4444 Billion (Net Income)
$3.71 Earnings Per Share
928,415,000 Fully Diluted Shares Used In Computation
Robert Paul Leitao
Robert Paul Leitao