Showing posts with label Apple iPad. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Apple iPad. Show all posts

Tuesday, April 24, 2012

Apple's March Quarter Results: The Good, The Bad and The Irrelevant


On April 24th, Apple announced results for the company's 2nd fiscal quarter ended March 31, 2012. For the quarter Apple reported revenue of $39.186 billion and earnings of $12.30 per fully diluted share. These results represent year-over-year revenue growth of 58.9% and eps growth of 92.2%. 
Apple's results for the March quarter exceeded Wall Street estimates by a country mile and in after hours trading the shares retraced recently lost ground and closed the session above $600.
Apple has transformed from being the maker of individual product lines to a purveyor of an integrated device and services eco-system. The March quarter results demonstrate the company's growing global dominance of the both the smartphone and emerging tablet device markets while extending Apple's leadership in offering a broadening array of content for these devices. 
I've titled this article Apple's March Quarter Results: The Good, The Bad and The Irrelevant. I'd like to take each of these qualifiers in turn.
The Good
In the March quarter Apple sold 35.064 million iPhones, representing an 88% year-over-year increase in units sold. The iPhone gained market share among subscribers at  Verizon and AT&T despite the sequential decline in domestic iPhone sales. 
In the March quarter, Apple shipped 11.798 million iPads, representing 151% year-over-year unit sales growth. 
Apple's Asia-Pacific Region delivered 114% revenue growth based on strong demand for the popular iPhone 4S handset with ongoing product demand.
The revenue segment inclusive of iTunes delivered 32% revenue growth to $2.151 billion and the revenue total exceeded revenue from iPod sales by 78%, signaling while the iPod line continues its decline, Apple's revenue generated from content sales and services for iOS-based devices continues to rise. 

Saturday, November 13, 2010

Preliminary AAPL FQ1 Estimates

As an independent analyst and moderator of the Apple Finance Board I'm posting preliminary FQ1 estimates for Apple as a catalyst for discussion of anticipated December quarter results. These estimates are subject to change and most likely will be revised in the coming weeks as we approach the end of the quarter. These estimates are being published at roughly the half-way point in the 13-week fiscal period.
FQ1 Revenue and Earnings Estimates
For the December quarter my current models forecast revenue of $26.221 billion and earnings per share of $5.80. This represents an expected 67% jump in revenue and a 58% rise in earnings per share.
The pace of eps growth trails revenue growth due to the estimated 37% gross margin this December versus the 40.9% gross margin in the prior-year period. This nearly 400 basis point drop in the gross margin ratio has a material impact on the relationship between revenue and earnings growth. 
Apple has become more aggressive on product pricing relative to build costs. It's my view the moderation in gross margins is intended to promote growth in after-purchase revenue from the sales of apps and content. The more units sold the more future revenue generated from units sold. 
Apple's Dynamic Revenue Mix
Two weeks ago I posted an FY2010 retrospective that illustrated the percentage revenue contributions from each of Apple's major product lines. Apple's overall revenue mix remains dynamic and changes by the quarter. The emergence of the Apple iPad will again change the percentage of revenue contributions from each product line to Apple's reported results. In the December quarter I expect the Apple iPad's revenue contribution to approach 16% of reported revenue. Each revenue dollar from Apple iPad sales in the December quarter is a gained revenue dollar relative to prior-year comparisons. My estimates suggest the Apple iPad will represent more than 50% of the estimated growth in revenue for the period. 

Sunday, October 24, 2010

AAPL FY2011 Estimates and Forecasts

AAPL FY2011 Estimates and Forecasts
In late July I posted a preliminary Apple FY2011 revenue forecast of $100 billion. Following the September quarter results I'm beginning my first set of estimate revisions. In reviewing my unit sales numbers following the September quarter I've become more emphatic about my current AAPL price target of $450 per share. I will be revising my revenue and earnings forecasts for FY 2011 over the next two weeks with a bias toward increasing the revenue forecast. Below are the factors by product line that are influencing the outcome of my work:
Mac Unit Sales
In FY 2011 I expect Mac unit sales growth to moderate from the 31% growth rate in FY2010. I expect Mac sales to growth a rate at least 2x the pace of growth of the industry. In fact, I expect Mac PC unit sales growth to represent more than 50% of the growth seen in the domestic market.
In my view tablet products such as the Apple iPad will force a continued deceleration of PC industry growth in the domestic market and increasing revenue share of all PC sold for Apple. Rising enterprise adoption, aggressive product pricing and Apple's efforts at refreshing the Mac product lines more frequently are counter-weights to unit sales growth falling below 25% for the fiscal year. I expect Apple to at least maintain its current 20.7% share of consumer PC sales in the domestic market.
iPod Unit Sales
In the 4th fiscal quarter of FY2010 both unit sales and revenue for the iPod line fell below prior-year levels. I expect this trend to continue into FY2011. For now I anticipate a 10% to 12% fall in unit sales for the fiscal year with the iPod touch partially offsetting a commensurate fall in revenue from the line. 
iPhone Unit Sales
To the surprise of all analysts, iPhone unit sales growth in the September quarter roughly matched the pace of growth for the first nine months of the fiscal year. I expect this strong pace of 90% growth in unit sales to continue through FY2011. Apple ended the September quarter with only 3.2 million iPhones in the global channel, representing about 2.5 weeks of expected unit sales in the quarter. As supply reaches demand, the FQ1 numbers will benefit from an increase in channel supply as Apple exits the quarter with more iPhones in the channel than when the quarter began. 

Monday, October 18, 2010

The September Quarter Outcome: Apple Prepares For Battle

September Quarter Results
Earlier today Apple reported results for the fourth fiscal quarter ended September 25, 2010 and the fiscal year ended the same day. The fiscal quarter's results were well above published analyst expectations. For the quarter Apple reported a 67% gain in revenue to $20.343 billion and a 67.5% rise in earnings per share to $4.64. For the fiscal year Apple reported a revenue gain of 52% to $65.225 billion and an earnings per share rise of about 66.9% to $15.15. These results are inline with my May forecasts for the fiscal year
The iPhone 4 Goes To War
The fiscal fourth quarter's results were lead by strong sales of the Apple iPhone. The 14.102 million units sold represents a 91% increase in unit sales, tracking inline with the fiscal year gain of 92.9% or 39.989 million units sold. This compares with estimated global smartphone unit sales growth of 64% for the industry. Tim Cook, Apple's COO, called demand for the iPhone 4 "staggering."
In the conference call with analysts following the earnings release, Apple CEO Steve Jobs was impassioned in his comparison of the iOS and Android platforms calling the iPhone's platform, based on Apple's iOS, "integrated" and the Android platform "fragmented." This was the CEO's nomenclature in response to Google's claims the Android  platform is "open" and the iPhone platform is "closed." Illustrating the fragmentation of the Android platform Mr. Jobs made reference to the many versions of Android with which app developers must contend and the proprietary interfaces some Android device makers will deploy to boost sales and create after-purchase revenue opportunities. This, he suggests, make the Android platform "fragmented." 
Apple's iOS Versus the Competition
Mr. Jobs also noted in his comments that in Apple's September quarter the company sold more smartphones (14.102 million units) than Research In Motion sold more smartphones in its most recent fiscal period ended in August (12.1 million units). In comparing the success of iOS-based products to the reported success of Android-based products, he stated Apple activated in September on average 275,000 iOS-based devices per day compared to an average of about 200,000 Android-based devices as reported by Google. In comparing activations one must note iOS-based device activations include the Apple iPhone, Apple iPad and Apple iPod touch. 

Saturday, October 9, 2010

AAPL Estimates: Have The Wall Street Pros Gone Crazy?

One of the more interesting features of Philip Elmer-DeWitt's Apple 2.0 column is the recurring quarterly comparisons of the revenue and earnings estimates of a select group of independent analysts and bloggers and the numbers put up by the Wall Street pros. 
The comparison of estimates for Apple's fiscal fourth quarter that ended in September illustrates how differently the independent bloggers and analysts view Apple and the company's prospects for strong revenue and earnings growth in the iPhone and Apple iPad eras. In reviewing the numbers one question leaps to mind: Have the Wall Street pros all gone crazy or have they been wilderness camping together since the Apple iPad's release? 
A quick look at the average estimates of the 31 analysts and the averages of the two sub-groups:
Average Revenue Estimates
All Analysts (31):                  $19.34 Billion
Independent Analysts (9): $20.32 Billion
Wall Street Pros (22):         $18.95 Billion
Average EPS Estimates
All Analysts (31):                          $4.28 
Independent Analysts (9):          $4.71
Wall Street Pros (22):                  $4.10
Apple's Guidance For The September Quarter
For the September quarter Apple CFO, Peter Oppenheimer, offered guidance of $18 billion in revenue and earnings of $3.44 per share. Historically Apple's guidance isn't guidance at all. It's a statement of guaranteed results. Guidance has markedly trailed actual results over the last several quarters. 
Apple's guidance for the September quarter suggests revenue growth of about 47.5% and eps growth of 24.2% over the fourth fiscal quarter of 2009. This contrasts with revenue growth of 46.2% for the first nine months of fiscal year 2010 and earnings per share growth of 66.8% over the same period.
However, in the June quarter, the first quarter with Apple iPad revenue and earnings in the mix, Apple realized revenue growth of 61.3% and earnings per share growth of 74.6%. It appears management's September quarter guidance does not reflect anticipated revenue and earnings per share growth from the Apple iPad in the July to September period.









Saturday, October 2, 2010

Based On Growth, AAPL Remains Undervalued

At Friday's closing price of $282.52 AAPL is trading at less than 22 times trailing 12-month earnings and at a significant discount to current rates of revenue and earnings growth. Factoring into the mix the roughly $50 in cash supporting each share, Friday's closing price represents a real opportunity for value and growth investors to enter the market and share in AAPL's appreciation potential. 
The Reasons Why AAPL Remains Undervalued
About three weeks ago in a blog post titled FY 2011 Analyst Estimates: Why AAPL Is Set To Pop I highlighted the disparity between analyst FY 2011 estimates for Apple's revenue and earnings performance and the company's current rates of revenue and earnings growth. The disparity remains. Current analyst consensus suggests revenue growth of just over 25% in FY 2011. For the fiscal year ended in late September, Apple will report roughly 50% revenue growth with revenue growth well above that rate in the second half of the fiscal year due to the release of the Apple iPad. I rate the risk of Apple's revenue growth decelerating by 50% in FY 2011 as remote. Analysts will revise their revenue and earnings estimates for FY 2011 following in the couple of weeks before and the weeks following the release of September quarter results on October 18th.
iPhone and Apple iPad Unit Sales Estimates
In reviewing the revenue and earnings estimates for the September quarter now being published by Wall Street analysts and independent bloggers, we are seeing a wide range of estimates for both iPhone and iPad unit sales.  Uncertainty over the strength of unit sales for both product lines may be impacting the current share price. Clarity will come with the release of Apple's September quarter results. 
The June quarter's 3.27 million iPad unit sales performance provides little insight into the September quarter's results due to limited distribution following the April 3rd release and constrained supply conditions that continued through much of the September quarter. The June quarter's iPhone unit sales performance was impacted by an aggressive drawdown of 3GS channel inventory ahead of the iPhone 4's release. In the June quarter iPhone unit sales rose 61% year-over-year versus unit sales growth of 93.7% for the first nine months of FY 2010, inclusive of the June period.
Apple's Growth Rates Delineated
No matter the interest in Apple's September quarter results and focus on the unit sales performance of the company's two fastest-growing product lines, understanding Apple's share price appreciation potential requires a more objective view of the company's current rates of growth as a whole:

Saturday, September 25, 2010

AAPL Target Price: $450 Per Share

At Friday's closing price of $292.32, AAPL has risen about $29 or 11% in two weeks. The good news is there's much more room for the share price to rise. On September 11th in a Posts At Eventide entry titled FY 2011 Analyst Estimates: Why AAPL Is Set To Pop, I noted the modest analyst estimates for FY 2011 that begins this weekend. Wall Street pros are continuing to be conservative in their price targets. Readers of this blog know I have a long-standing price target of $400 by early May. According to Philip Elmer-DeWiit at  Apple 2.0, perennial Apple bull Gene Munster has recently raised his price target to $390 per share and for good reasons.
In evaluating and forecasting Apple one must look beyond the individual product lines and look at the performance of the company as a whole. In fiscal year 2011 Apple may have a second consecutive year of 50% revenue growth and 60%+ growth in earnings per share.
To put Apple's growth in perspective, in fiscal year 2011 revenue from iPad device sales and iPad-related accessories and services may equal or exceed Apple's total reported revenue in fiscal year 2007. Overall, in fiscal year 2011 Apple may reach $100 billion in revenue, a four-fold increase in revenue in four fiscal years. The Apple iPad is obviously a significant factor in Apple's revenue growth. But consider the Apple iPad may represent 25% of the company's FY 2011 revenue take. 
Assembling all of the product and services pieces should yield price targets well above current Wall Street projections and well beyond today's trading range. Continuing analyst upgrades and price target revisions will fuel further gains in the share price no matter the run up in the share price over the past two weeks. 
Apple's two fastest growing product lines (the iPhone and the Apple iPad) are having a pronounced halo effect on Mac sales. Mac unit sales growth for fiscal year 2010 will meet or exceed 30%. Even with the release of the Apple iPad, Mac unit sales will continue to rise at an impressive pace in fiscal year 2011. The iPad is taking revenue share from PC sales in the sub-$1,000 market, a market Apple barely addresses with the $999 MacBook. 
At AAPL's closing price on Friday of $292.32, the shares are trading at a multiple of 22 times trailing 12-month earnings. I expect this multiple to remain fairly consistent over the next twelve months. I am raising my AAPL price target to $450 per share. I expect that share price to be reached no later than early November 2011.




Sunday, September 19, 2010

The Apple iPad: A Transcendent Device

The Apple iPad Transcends The PC
In June, in a blog post I titled Bunkum and Balderdash: The iPad Is Not A PC,  I commented on a Forrester Research report that suggested the Apple iPad is a PC in tablet form. The Apple iPad is not a PC or a PC replacement. The Apple iPad is a device that transcends the PC and it's a product that will hasten the PC's demise. The Apple iPad is a revolutionary device that is sparking an evolutionary change in the way we access information and communicate with the world around us and with one another. 
The Apple iPad's Impact On Notebook PC Sales
On Friday Philip Elmer-DeWitt published an Apple 2.0 column citing data from the NPD Group that was included in a report from Morgan Stanley's Katy Huberty indicating domestic notebook retail PC sales have decelerated since the release of the Apple iPad. The deceleration in sales has been so dramatic, it's estimated in August notebook PC sales experienced negative domestic sales growth. 
There are several factors, including the iPad's early success, that might be contributing to the negative growth in notebooks sales at retail. Among these factors are a possible slowdown in sales or sales growth following the release of Windows 7 last fall, the popularity of Apple laptops on America's college campuses and a change in consumer preferences about personal digital devices. 
Absent data on Apple iPad sales, it's challenging at best to accurately determine the direct impact Apple's tablet-sized digital device is having on domestic retail sales of PC notebook computers. But for Windows PC OEMs the early success of the Apple iPad may force an acceleration of plans to release competing tablet products in an effort to recapture revenue migrating to Apple due to the iPad's popularity. Until now the iPad's domestic distribution has been limited. As iPad distribution expands and competitors enter the tablet market it may quicken the pace of decline in notebook PC sales.  Retailers will chase this change in consumer preferences.

Saturday, September 11, 2010

FY 2011 Analyst Estimates: Why AAPL Is Set To Pop

Overview
At Friday's closing price of $263.41 AAPL is trading at a price-earnings multiple of just under 20 times trailing 12-month earnings. Considering the company's huge cash position, 50% revenue growth this fiscal year and an anticipated 65% growth in earnings per share, Friday's closing price represents a deep discount to the company's current rates of growth.
Last month I detailed the basis of my forecast for AAPL to reach $400 per share by early May 2011. I've also stated reaching this price will not require a significant expansion of the nominal price-earnings multiple and continuing relative compression (the difference between the price-earnings multiple and continuing rates of growth) may continue. In other words, the discount between the current rates of growth and the valuation at which the share trade may continue to widen even as the share price appreciates. 

Fiscal Year 2011 Analyst Estimates
One of the factors impacting the share price is the lowly analyst estimates for the company's fiscal year 2011 performance. Apple's new fiscal year begins at the end of this month. Currently the analyst consensus estimate for FY 2011 revenue is $78.70 billion in revenue and the consensus estimate for earnings per share is $17.52. In late July I posted early FY 2011 estimates of $100 billion in revenue and earnings per share of over $23. The analyst consensus estimates for FY 2011 revenue and earnings will rise considerably following the September quarter's results. 
The consensus estimates of analysts for the September quarter are revenue of $18.50 billion and earnings share of $3.97. Apple will exceed the current consensus revenue estimate by at least 12% and the earnings per share estimate by 15% or more. For fiscal year 2011 the gap between the analyst consensus estimates and performance based on current rates of revenue and earnings growth continues to widen. 
The analyst consensus of $78.70 billion in FY 2011 revenue suggests a revenue growth rate of roughly 20% from the current fiscal year's performance. In fiscal year 2010 Apple will realize revenue growth of 50% over the prior fiscal year and earnings per share growth of over 65%.  The consensus earnings earnings per share estimate of $17.52 per share suggests growth of less than 17% over the current fiscal year. These estimates must undergo significant revisions because 
Not only are the consensus estimates for fiscal year 2011 revenue and earnings growth well below the rates of fiscal year 2010 growth, for the first two quarters of fiscal year 2011 there are no iPad revenue or earnings contributions in the prior-year comparisons. 

Saturday, September 4, 2010

The Apple iPad: A Uniquely Personal Device, A Global Revenue and Earnings Monster

Overview
I'm taking time out today not to talk so much about Apple's finances, but to talk about an amazing product that is a catalyst for another era of spectacular growth for the maker of Macs, iPhones and iPods. It's the Apple iPad. I'm sold on this product today and I look forward to the feature and functionality enhancements in the years to come.
In July I posted a blog entry about My $1,000 iPad Purchase Odyssey. Since the moment I unwrapped and powered up this device the manner in which I do many things from read the news, surf the Web and organize my work day have changed in dramatic ways. 
In a recent Apple 2.0 column Philip Elmer-DeWitt quotes Morgan Stanley's Katy Huberty about her claim Apple has told suppliers to ramp up for a run rate of 3 million iPads a month. I believe the global market can support sales of at least 3 million iPads a month and more. This is the most immersive digital device I have ever owned and about the most productive digital device I could bring to my office. 
Assuming for a moment Katy Huberty's claim is accurate and Apple has told suppliers to ramp up for a 3 million unit a month run rate, in fiscal year 2011 Apple would generate more revenue from the iPad alone than the company generated from all sources as recently as three years ago in fiscal year 2007, including retrospective adjustments to revenue from iPhone sales. 
The Apple iPad is a revenue and earnings monster. It will chomp on netbook and laptop sales, sales of handheld gaming devices and drink up revenue from book and software sales as old economy industries such as newspapers and magazines adapt to the iPad economy and software developers migrate to the iOS devices.  
A Uniquely Personal Device
In the seven weeks I've owned an Apple iPad it's become my primary portal for news and information, for Web surfing and my favored device for concept development for projects at home and work. Beyond these necessary tasks the iPad is an excellent book reader and I'm discovering its many uses as a handheld theatre for home entertainment. This afternoon I downloaded Epic Citadel and explored this application as a preview of games to come.
My favorite news apps are: NPR for iPad, the BBC News, AP News and NYT Editors' Choice.  Each of these apps showcase why the Apple iPad is a news reader beyond compare.



Sunday, August 29, 2010

AAPL Fiscal 4th Quarter Revenue Estimate Preview

AAPL Fiscal 4th Quarter Revenue Estimate Preview
In late July I published an early fourth fiscal quarter estimate for Apple of at least $20 billion in revenue and earnings of $4.30 or more per share.

This weekend I did a more critical review of Apple's fiscal year 2010 performance through the June quarter and revised my ratios to reflect recent trends in Apple's financial performance. This post discusses the revenue component of Apple's fourth fiscal quarter results.

Apple's FQ4 '09 Revenue and Apple's Guidance for FQ4 '10
In the fourth quarter of fiscal year '09 Apple reported revenue of about $12.2 billion. In the June quarter conference call with analysts, Apple's management provided revenue guidance for the September quarter of about $18 billion in revenue or roughly a 47.5% increase in revenue year-over-year. This guidance is obviously conservative based on the company's revenue growth results for the first nine months of the fiscal year.

Apple's FY '10 Growth Rates To-Date
Apple's revenue growth rate for the first nine months of the fiscal year is 46.2%. This is not the number that suggests Apple's guidance is conservative. In the June quarter the Apple iPad contributed to 61.2% growth in revenue while Apple aggressively drained the global channel of iPhone supply ahead of the iPhone 4's release. Absent the iPad's revenue contribution, the year-over-year revenue gain for the nine-month period would have been about 39.1%. This is a respectable rate of revenue growth absent the Apple iPad.

How the iPad Influences FQ '10 Revenue Results
In the June quarter the iPad produced revenue of $2.166 billion, inclusive of 3.27 million units sold and iPad accessories sales. For the fiscal fourth quarter, a reasonable estimate of sales is 6 million units and estimated revenue of $3.975 billion. The iPad alone at 6 million units sold will produce a revenue gain of 32.5% over the prior-year period.

To put the iPad's importance to Apple's September quarter results in an appropriate perspective, one must consider in limited release the device represented 13.8% of the June quarter's reported revenue. At 6 million units sold the Apple iPad will represent between 18% and 20% of the September quarter's revenue results. This does not include revenue contributions from iPad-related iTunes sales activity.


Although available in limited release in the June quarter only, the iPad represents about 4.8% of Apple's reported revenue for the first nine months of the fiscal year and represents 7% of the revenue growth over the same nine-month prior-year period.



Saturday, August 21, 2010

AAPL At $400 Per Share By May: Here's Why

AAPL At $400 Per Share By May:Here's Why

Over the past several weeks I've been quizzed and queried about my continuing call for AAPL to reach over $400 per share by early May 2011. Indeed, I expect AAPL to reach $500 per share within three years


No matter the low price to earnings multiple at which Apple's share price currently trades relative to 12-month trailing earnings, surpassing $400 per share within nine months does not require a significant expansion of the company's current p/e multiple nor the release of additional hardware devices. 

At Friday's closing price of $249.64, AAPL is trading at a p/e multiple of only 18.79 times trailing 12-month earnings. This is not only a low multiple to current rates of growth, it's a significant discount to near-term revenue and earnings expectations. I expect by May of 2011 for the price-earnings multiple at which AAPL currently trades to expand to just over 20 times trailing 12-month earnings from 18.79 times earnings today.
What justifies a share price of over $400 by May 2011 are the following factors:
Revenue and Earnings Growth
I forecast Apple's rate of revenue growth for this fiscal year at about 50%. For the first nine months of this fiscal year revenue has exceeded the prior year's total by more than 46%, and only the June quarter included the benefit of Apple iPad sales. In the June quarter Apple realized a 61% increase in revenue due in large part to the release of the Apple iPad in the quarter and its contribution of $2.166 billion in revenue. The Apple iPad alone contributed 22.3% to revenue growth over the prior-year period and represented 13.8% of the June quarter's revenue total.
The Apple iPad and iPhone
For the first two quarters of fiscal year 2011 there will be no iPad revenue comparisons with the prior-year periods and all iPad revenue and earnings contributions will be a boost to results in prior-year comparisons. In my recent blog entry titled Apple and the Law of Large Numbers, I mentioned in the September quarter more than 50% of Apple's revenue will be sourced from products that did not exist in the market as recently as three and one-half years ago. The Apple iPad and associated sales will constitute greater that 20% of Apple's earnings and contribute more than 20% of earnings per share. 
The Apple iPhone will continue to realize strong year-over-year unit sales gains as the global market for smartphones expands rapidly. The Apple iPhone will deliver unit sales gains of more than 50% for the next several quarters and unit sales gains at an even faster clip through at least the 2nd fiscal of 2011. For the first nine months of FY 2010, iPhone unit sales have risen about 94% over the same nine-month prior year period. 
My early FY 2011 revenue and earnings forecast calls for revenue of roughly $100 billion and resulting eps of over $23 per share. 








Sunday, August 8, 2010

Apple Retail Stores And Mac Sales

Apple Retail Stores And Mac Sales
There's no doubt a correlation exists between the increase in the number of Apple retail store locations and the impressive pace of Macintosh unit sales gains. In the June quarter Apple sold a record 3.472 million Macs. Of that total, 677,000 Macs were sold through Apple's international chain of retail stores.

However, in addition to being points of purchase, the retail stores play an important role as customer service and product education centers. Apple retail store data suggests the bricks and mortar stores are boosting Macintosh sales through other sales channels. 
Increase In The Number of Apple Retail Store Locations
During last month's June quarter conference call with analysts, Apple's management stated the company ended the June quarter with 293 retail stores and anticipated openings 24 new stores during the September quarter. This 8% expansion in retail store locations in one three-month period is not only ambitious, it supports continued strong Mac sales in the current and future quarters.
In the June quarter Apple retail stores hosted an estimated 60.5 million visitors, experienced revenue growth of 73% over the prior-year period and revenue ramped to an average of $9 million per store. Sequentially, retail store sales rose 53% from the March quarter results. The release of the Apple iPad in the June quarter positively impacted both store foot traffic and store revenue results. As primary points of purchase for the Apple iPad, which currently remains in constrained supply, the retail stores benefitted in both customer traffic and sales activity from the release of this popular new device.
The Pace of Mac Unit Sales Growth
During the first three quarters of FY 2010 the year-over-year growth rate in total Mac unit sales has remained amazingly consistent at 33% each quarter. This impressive rate of Mac unit sales growth for the first nine months of this fiscal year portends strong Mac unit sales in the September quarter as well.
Should Apple report a fourth consecutive quarter of 33% year-over-year increases in Mac unit sales, the company will ship over 4 million Macs in the three-month period ending in September and realize roughly a 17% sequential gain in unit sales, just shy of the June quarter's 18% sequential unit sales gain performance.
For now I am estimating Apple's year-over-year unit sales gains in the September quarter will remain consistent with the trend for the first nine months of this fiscal year, establishing yet another quarterly unit sales record and setting a record for Mac sales in a fiscal year of 13.8 million units or more.

Tuesday, August 3, 2010

My $1,000 iPad Purchase Odyssey (And The Law Of Large Numbers Be Damned)

I'm taking time out tonight to share my iPad purchase story. My experiences in buying this device provide corroborating anecdotal evidence as to why I believe Apple will achieve $20 billion in revenue this quarter and blow away most revenue and eps estimates. 
My $1,000 iPad Purchase
At the end of that day I had made a $1,000 iPad purchase (accouterment and sales tax included). I spent $1,053.60 to be exact and $960 before CA sales tax was added. The pre-tax amount is a nice even number because Apple doesn't do the silly ninety nine cent thing on hardware devices. The purchase odyssey required an eighty five mile round-trip trek along the highways and byways of Southern California and visits to two extraordinarily busy Apple retail stores on a Sunday afternoon. 
I have nothing against Best Buy per se and certainly not when the store is located conveniently in my home city of Santa Clarita. On this Sunday afternoon the local store had the 64 GB Wi-Fi + 3G iPad in stock. It's not the model I wanted and I was determined to purchase the desired iPad accouterment at the same time. My list of accessories included the external keyboard, AppleCare, additional power cable and the Apple iPad case. I also wanted the 32 GB iPad and wasn't willing to fork over the additional $100 for the 64 GB model. Off to the Apple store in Glendale we go. 
Glendale Apple Store
My wife and I arrive at the Apple Store in Glendale about 3:30pm and the store is absolutely packed. Every digital device on display has someone tending to it and every store staff member is busy with at least one customer and another waiting impatiently for their attention. The store also has absolutely no iPads in stock. Being the resourceful person she is, my wife grabbed the first seat that became available by a Mac on display, took out her iPhone, Googled store numbers and started making calls. The Best Buy in Burbank had no iPads in stock, the Best Buy in Santa Clarita still had the 64 GB model available and the Sherman Oaks Apple Store had the 64 GB model in stock but only if we hurry. 
Not to leave the store empty handed and just in case the Best Buy in Santa Clarita was the only option remaining by the time we drove to Sherman Oaks, I bought all of the iPad accessories I wanted at the Glendale store. The accessories were easy to find. An available sales person to handle the sales was the challenge. Finally we get a staff person's attention. While processing the purchases he recommended we get on the waiting list for an iPad purchase at the store. Estimated wait time was three weeks. I reluctantly signed up as the purchase mode of last resort. We made a beeline for the Sherman Oaks Apple Store. By the time we made the 20 minute drive I had already received my confirmation email from Apple of my reservation at the store for the 32 GB iPad I wanted. I grumbled all the way to Sherman Oaks I didn't want to spend the extra $100 for the 64 GB model, but I had resigned myself to that fate if I wanted the iPad that day.

Saturday, July 31, 2010

Apple and The Law of Large Numbers

Apple and The Law of Large Numbers
There's been much talk about the perceived limits to Apple's continuing growth due to what's called the Law of Large Numbers. This axiom or financial rule suggests as Apple's revenue grows the chance of sustaining current rates of growth diminishes as more growth is required to maintain the same percentage of growth.
In my view applying the Law of Large Numbers to Apple at this time is a fallacious argument. It might appear valid to casual observers of the company or to those fixed on applying commonly accepted axioms in their investment strategies without regard to the  unique circumstances of a particular enterprise, but for now this axiom or financial rule does not apply to Apple. 
Here's why:
In the June quarter close to 50% of Apple's revenue was derived from products that did not exist in the market just over three years ago. In the September and December quarters, well over 50% of Apple's reported revenue will be derived from iPhone and iPad sales. At the moment there's no practical limit to the size of the market for these two products. 
The Macintosh
Apple's oldest hardware product line, the Macintosh, has sustained a roughly 33% unit sales growth rate over the past three fiscal quarters. In the June quarter operating segments exclusive of the Americas and Apple's international chain of retail stores accounted for just over 41% of unit sales. In Europe alone unit sales increased 46% over the prior year period. While Mac sales continue to grow at a pace greater than industry averages, the Mac still accounts for less than 10% of domestic PC sales and garner a much lower percentage of global market share. Although Apple's offerings in the sub-$1,000 PC market are limited to the Mac mini and nominally the MacBook, the company recorded in the June quarter the largest shipment into the educational channel  in the company's history. This occurred during a period in which public education spending remains severely constricted. 
Apple Retail Stores
At the end of the June quarter Apple had 293 retail stores open for business. During the September quarter Apple will open 24 new stores and store sales and foot traffic continue to accelerate. In the June quarter store revenue increased 73% to $2.578 billion and produced average store sales of $9 million. Foot traffic into the stores reached a record 60.5 million visitors, an increase of 57% over the prior-year period. With an increase of over 8% in the number of stores in the September quarter alone, store sales and foot traffic will continue to rise at record levels for the foreseeable future.
Management reports roughly 50% of the 677,000 Macs sold at Apple retail stores in the quarter were to customer who had never owned a Mac before.
The Apple iPad
In the June quarter and in limited release, The Apple iPad and constituent products accounted for $2.166 billion of reported revenue, representing almost 14% of Apple's reported revenue activity. The Apple iPad remains in constrained supply and even Apple's management does not have a reliable metric to gauge global demand for this currently unique device. 
In the September and December quarters the Apple iPad and constituent products should deliver between 15% and 20% of Apple's reported revenue. This is revenue from a product that was not present in the market as recently as five months ago and will deliver significant year-over-year revenue gains for the next several quarters. 

Wednesday, July 28, 2010

Apple's $100 Billion FY 2011

I'm working on early FY 2011 forecasts for Apple. At this time I expect Apple to realize roughly $100 billion in revenue and a corresponding $23 or more in eps for the year.
Back in May I forecast FY 2010 revenue of $65 billion. Apple will come close to that mark for the fiscal year with a $20 billion revenue fourth fiscal quarter. In the June quarter Apple grew revenue 61% versus the prior-year period due in part to the early success of the Apple iPad. Apple should at least match this rate of revenue growth in the current quarter.
In the fourth fiscal quarter of FY 2009 Apple reported revenue of $12.207 billion. What will propel revenue to gains of roughly 65% in the current quarter is the expansion of the  iPad's sales reach, continuing growth in the number of Apple retail stores and strong sales of the iPhone 4 in its first full quarter of release. 
Looking forward to fiscal year 2011, the iPad and constituent products may represent over 20% of total revenue, proving the company with a significant head start in achieving better than 50% revenue growth during the fiscal year. 
It's virtually impossible to rationally forecast 50% or better growth in revenue for next fiscal year without an associated and more than commensurate rise in the company's share price. This is due in large part to the significant discount at which the shares trade relative to current earnings and the company's growing cash position. I reiterate my expectation for AAPL to move above $400 per share by early May 2011. 

Robert Paul Leitao

Sunday, July 25, 2010

AAPL 4th Fiscal Quarter Early Estimates

It's early in Apple's 4th fiscal quarter. But in reviewing the June quarter results (the first quarter incorporating iPad revenue activity) certain revenue and earnings trends have already emerged. 
Yesterday I published a primer titled Understanding Apple's Success Made Easy. I posted the content especially for readers who might not be financially inclined but are curious about Apple's continuing success. Using the June quarter results as an example, roughly $.20 of each revenue dollar flowed to Apple's bottom line. For the September quarter I expect Apple to improve ever-so-slightly on this ratio. 
My expectation is based on an impressive quarter for iPhone sales as Apple continues the global rollout of the iPhone 4 and seeks to replenish channel inventory following the June quarter drawdown. Further, the Apple iPad continues to sell extraordinarily well, and will assist in boosting revenue growth to at least the 61.2% rate experienced in the June quarter.
In the fourth fiscal quarter of 2009 Apple reported adjusted revenue (after removing the impact of deferred revenue accounting for the iPhone) of $12.207 billion. Applying the June quarter's revenue growth rate, fourth fiscal quarter revenue would reach about $19.68 billion. I expect the year-over-year revenue growth to accelerate in the September quarter above the June quarter's pace. The revenue drivers are the iPhone 4 and the Apple iPad. For now I expect the growth in Mac unit sales to remain relatively consistent with the growth rates experienced in the first nine months of the fiscal year at about 33%. As revenue scales higher, operating expenses as a percentage of revenue should decline modestly, providing for a more than proportional gain in earnings from each additional revenue dollar received. 
In the fourth fiscal quarter of 2009 Apple reported sales of 7.367 iPhone units. Although year-over-year iPhone unit sales grew 61% in the June quarter, the rate of unit sales growth in that quarter was well below the growth rates experienced in the first six months of the fiscal year. For now I expect iPhone unit shipments to grow in the September quarter at least 75% over the prior year, supply constraints being the only mitigating matter. 
My early fourth fiscal quarter estimates call for revenue of about $20 billion and eps of at least $4.30 per share. I reiterate my forecast Apple's share price will move above $400 per share by early May 2011 and should surpass $300 per share within the next several weeks.

Robert Paul Leitao

Saturday, July 24, 2010

Understanding Apple's Success Made Easy

Apple is an extraordinarily successful company. I have a hard drive full of spreadsheets to document it and I spend much time each calendar quarter forecasting it. But there's an easier way to understand Apple's success than pouring over news reports, financial reports and traversing the Web on a daily basis looking for insights. 
I'll use the company's most recent quarterly performance as an example. For the three-month period that ended June 26, 2010, Apple reported revenue of $15.7 billion and net income of $3.253 billion dollars. Essentially just over $.20 of every revenue dollar flowed to the company's bottom line. This is after all costs have been paid, including income taxes. Prior to income tax expense Apple reported about $.27 of every revenue dollar flowed to the operating income line. 
In the June quarter Apple reported cost of sales (costs of the products and services sold during the quarter) totaled $9.564 billion or about 61% of each revenue dollar. Conversely, about 39% of each revenue dollar was maintained by the company to apply to other costs and reward shareholders in net profits.
Here's the simple math: Apple retains roughly 40% of each revenue dollar after covering the costs of products and services sold. Of that amount roughly 50% or 20% of each revenue dollar flows to the company's bottom line. 
How Does Apple Create Such High Profits?
Market Segmentation
Apple doesn't compete for product sales, per se. Apple competes for profits. The company carefully picks and chooses its product markets and defines which segments of these markets in which to compete. This is why Apple doesn't manufacture nor sell cheap PCs, cheap phones, etc. Apple competes in select market segments such as the $1,000+ PC market because in that segment Apple has greater pricing control and thus greater opportunities to realize higher profits.
Constituent Products and Services
Products and services such as AppleCare and MobileMe are margin expanders. They increase the yield per customer and increase the gross margin averages on products sold. Apple's focus is not on unit sales of products alone. Apple's focus is on the customer. Customer satisfaction drives sales in Apple's chosen market segments far more than the appeal of a discounted price. 
Apple consolidates revenue from iPhone-related products and services in the iPhone revenue segment. While iPhone unit sales increased 61% in the June quarter versus the prior-year period, segment revenue increased by 74%. The rising revenue relative to unit sales is influenced by revenue created from constituent products and services such as iPhone accessories. 
Content Sells Devices
Sales of the Apple iPod exploded following the opening of the iTunes music store in 2003 and the release of iTunes for Windows. Availability of content drives hardware sales. The iTunes app store is an important component of the iPhone's success. The Apple iPad, a product that set sales records at the time of release, came to market with the iTunes stores providing electronic books, music, movies and apps from the start. The iPad's early success is due in large part to the availability of content for the device. 
In the June quarter Apple reported revenue from "Other Music Related Products and Services" of $1.214 Billion, representing about 7.7% of total revenue. This revenue segment includes iTunes store sales, iPod services and Apple-branded and third-party iPod accessories. Content sells devices and devices subsequently sells more content. 
Apple Retail Stores
Apple's chain of retail stores was the fastest chain to reach $1 Billion in sales in US history. Not only are the stores successful as a retail chain, according to management 50% of Mac buyers at the retail stores are new to the platform. Although we've all seen Mac, iPhone and iPad advertisements, much more would need to be spent on advertising to support product sales absent the retail store chain. In the June quarter the retail stores were the source of 677,000 Macintosh units sold representing almost 20% of all Macintosh computers sold worldwide. 
If All This Represents A Model of Success, Why Don't Competitors Replicate It?
There's an old saying, "It took a lifetime to become an overnight success." The first Apple retail stores opened in May 2001 and the iTunes music store began operations in 2003. Both the Apple retail stores and the online iTunes stores are vital components of Apple's continuing success. Competitors can attempt to match Apple's market approach. But it would require huge investments in retail and online sales infrastructures and the ability to establish and maintain product pricing control. None of those variables come easy and nothing comes cheap. It also requires a great deal of time to establish and build on these sales assets. 
Absent the time, resources and willingness to invest in a long-term strategy to achieve Apple-style success, most competitors focus on price capitulation as a means to move units. This obviously reduces profit per revenue dollar and also reduces the competitor's ability to maintain pricing control over products.
Apple jealously guards its brand image and the company obsesses over product quality and customer satisfaction. Apple's success was not achieved overnight and can not be replicated without years of effort and billions of dollars of investment. While brand value might be considered an intangible by some, brand awareness, a reputation for quality products and strategic selection of market segments to enter are all producing tangible results for the company that will soon become the most highly-valued corporate entity in America. 
Understanding Apple's success requires only simple math. But achieving that success is the culmination of many years of effort and investment. 

Robert Paul Leitao

Saturday, July 17, 2010

AAPL June Quarter Estimates In Detail

The past month has been unbelievably busy at work leaving little time to post or even second guess my AAPL June quarter estimates. Perhaps that's a good thing. My June quarter estimates are based in part on averages and ratios sourced from Apple's most recent quarterly results. For the June quarter, ratios are slightly weighted in favor of the December quarter performance due to the anticipated record revenue from the success of the Apple iPad. 
My June quarter estimates anticipate both record revenue for Apple and record earnings per share. Although I expect record revenue, I did not scale down certain expense ratios relative to revenue as might be realized in better economic times. No doubt there are also costs related to the rollout of the Apple iPad.  Still, I maintained a gross margin estimate below that of the 2nd fiscal quarter but inline with recent trends. 
My forecast of over $16 billion in revenue is influenced by the release of the Apple iPad (obviously) and anticipated growth in iTunes store sales from the proliferation of iOS devices. The estimates are also favorably impacted by expected strong sales of "beyond the box" products and services such as MobileMe and AppleCare. Although strong revenue growth is mostly influenced by hardware device unit sales, revenue from constituent and ancillary products and services benefit gross margins.
Below are my detailed estimates for Apple's June quarter. Unit sales by product line, gross revenue, gross margin and eps calculations have been provided to Philip Elmer-DeWitt for use in his Apple 2.0 quarterly analyst comparisons:
Revenue:
$4.4288 Billion (Macs) - 3.46 million units
$5.9247 Billion (iPhone) - 9.4 million units
$1.4720 Billion (iPod) - 9.2 million units
$2.2275 Billion (iPad)
$2.3800 Billion (iTunes/Other)
$16.433 Revenue Total
$9.7776 Billion (GOGS)  - GM 40.5%
$6.6554 Billion (Gross Margin)
Expenses:
$0.4601 Billion (R&D)
$1.4379 Billion (GS&A)
$4.7574 Billion (Operating Income)
$0.0600 Billion (Other Income)
$4.8174 Billion (Income Before Taxes)
$1.3730 Billion (Provision for Taxes) - 28.5%
$3.4444 Billion (Net Income)
$3.71 Earnings Per Share
928,415,000 Fully Diluted Shares Used In Computation


Robert Paul Leitao