Wednesday, July 28, 2010

Apple's $100 Billion FY 2011

I'm working on early FY 2011 forecasts for Apple. At this time I expect Apple to realize roughly $100 billion in revenue and a corresponding $23 or more in eps for the year.
Back in May I forecast FY 2010 revenue of $65 billion. Apple will come close to that mark for the fiscal year with a $20 billion revenue fourth fiscal quarter. In the June quarter Apple grew revenue 61% versus the prior-year period due in part to the early success of the Apple iPad. Apple should at least match this rate of revenue growth in the current quarter.
In the fourth fiscal quarter of FY 2009 Apple reported revenue of $12.207 billion. What will propel revenue to gains of roughly 65% in the current quarter is the expansion of the  iPad's sales reach, continuing growth in the number of Apple retail stores and strong sales of the iPhone 4 in its first full quarter of release. 
Looking forward to fiscal year 2011, the iPad and constituent products may represent over 20% of total revenue, proving the company with a significant head start in achieving better than 50% revenue growth during the fiscal year. 
It's virtually impossible to rationally forecast 50% or better growth in revenue for next fiscal year without an associated and more than commensurate rise in the company's share price. This is due in large part to the significant discount at which the shares trade relative to current earnings and the company's growing cash position. I reiterate my expectation for AAPL to move above $400 per share by early May 2011. 

Robert Paul Leitao

2 comments:

  1. DT
    Do you care to share your breakout for 2011 by product area. 100M would be nice but my realistic forecast is about 91M and tweaks bring in to 94M. Where are you getting the extra?

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