The Braeburn Group AAPL March Quarter Estimates

On April 24th Apple will announce results for the company's 2nd fiscal quarter ended March 31st. To gauge expectations for the March quarter, we asked members of the Braeburn Group, formerly known as the AAPL Independent Analysts, to submit estimates for the company's March quarter performance. The group takes its new name from the braeburn apple, a hybrid cultivar of the popular fruit.

Among the fifteen Braeburn Group members who submitted estimates for the March quarter are Dennis Hildebrand, Navin Nagrani, Patrick Smellie and newcomers Scott Millar and Christian Peel. Collectively these fifteen individuals represent a cross section of the Group's members and come from a variety of professional backgrounds and career interests. Membership in this private group is open to those willing to register and actively participate in the group's lively discussions. 

On average Braeburn Group Index participants anticipate the following March quarter unit sales results:

		Macs	4,617,307	22.80%	YOY Growth
		iPhones	38,232,733	105.03%	YOY Growth
		iPads	13,301,667	183.38%	YOY Growth
		iPods	6,844,933	-24.09%	YOY Growth

Notes on the Unit Sales Estimates:

Mac Sales: In Apple's 14-week December quarter, Mac unit sales rose 25.74% to 5.198 million units. The average unit sales growth estimate from the Braeburn Group Index participants suggests unit sales growth of 22.80%, on track with the 22.19% unit sales growth Apple reported in in the fiscal year ended last September. 

iPhone Unit Sales: On average, the Braeburn Group Index participants expect iPhone unit sales growth of 105% to 38.232 million units. This is below the December quarter unit sales growth pace of 128% and slightly above the FY2011 unit sales growth rate of 99%.

iPad Unit Sales: The introduction of the new iPad in the final month of the March quarter has produced a wide range of unit sales estimate from the Braeburn Group Index analysts. For the quarter, the fifteen participants anticipate on average unit sales of sales of 13.301 million iPads and associated unit sales growth of over 183%.

iPod Unit Sales: On average, the index participants anticipate a nearly 25% decline in year-over-year iPod sales to about 6.845 million units. 

The AAPL Independent Analysts FQ4 Estimate Index

On October 18th Apple will announce results for the company's 4th fiscal quarter ended September 24th. To gauge expectations for the quarter, we asked members of the AAPL Independent Analysts group on Linkedin and members of the Apple Finance Board who have participated in prior quarterly indexes to submit estimates of the company's 4th fiscal quarter performance. 

Among the fourteen individuals who submitted estimates for this September quarter index are well known independent analysts Horace Dediu and Daniel Tello, returning analysts Navin Nagrani and Patrick Smellie and newcomers Michael Cranston and Martin Epstein. Collectively these individuals represent a cross section of the AAPL independent analyst community and come from various professional backgrounds and career interests. 

On average index participants anticipate the following September quarter unit sales results:

	Macs	4,677,500			20.40% YOY Rise
	iPhones	23,765,071			68.52% YOY Rise
	iPods	7,158,857			20.91% YOY Decline
	iPads	13,624,214			225.32% YOY Rise

Notes on the Unit Sales Numbers:

Mac sales: Over the first nine months of FY 2011, Macintosh unit sales rose 21.1%. The index average is inline with the recent unit sales trend and reflects confidence in Mac sales during the recent back-to-school season.

iPhone sales: The index average reflects expectations of a slower rate of growth in iPhone unit sales in the 4th quarter due to the release of the iPhone 5 in the holiday quarter. During the first nine months of the fiscal year iPhone unit sales rose 113%. 

iPod sales: The Apple iPod remains in a state of steady unit sales decline. The iOS-based Apple iPod touch remains the biggest revenue generator among the available iPod models. Apple's decision this year to offer $100 in iTunes content to students purchasing a new Mac versus a free iPod touch will influence iPod unit sales results in the quarter. 

iPad sales: The index average suggests anticipation of strong iPad unit sales in the September quarter as Apple strived to resolve the challenge of constrained product supplies. Index participants expect a rise in unit sales of 225% over the prior-year period. 

The AFB AAPL Price Target Index - June 2011 Edition

The Apple Finance Board is home to some of the best known and hardest working independent AAPL analysts on the blogosphere. As a service to the members of the AFB, a popular and well respected discussion board, I'm hosting the index of AFB AAPL price targets and share price forecasts developed by the members. 

Index participants submitted AAPL price targets for the first trading day of the month following the release of Apple's quarterly earnings reports through May 1, 2012 and associated ranges for the share price. The dates chosen for the quarterly price targets represent the first trading day of the month following the release of Apple's quarterly earnings reports, providing time for the markets to adjust the company's valuation based on the the most recent quarterly numbers. 

Comments on the index can be made at the bottom of this post and for registered members of the AFB in the topic created specifically for this discussion.  

The graphs and data table below indicate the average AAPL price targets of the index participants. The price targets and price range forecasts of each of the participants is listed below the averages. Thank  you to the AFB members participating in the index for the benefit of our readers.

	AFB	Index	Averages
	Date	Low	High	Target
	Aug 1, 2011	352	418	397
	Nov 1, 2011	394	470	445
	Feb 1, 2012	438	518	498
	May 1, 2012	478	558	547

Thank You to PED And The Active Members Of The AFB

I'd like to extend a thank you to Philip Elmer-DeWitt at Apple 2.0 for another compelling quarterly comparison of AAPL estimates from the bloggers and the Wall Street pros. Over the past several quarters Mr. Elmer-DeWitt has been the catalyst for transforming AAPL analysis into a participatory sport.

As the moderator of the Apple Finance Board (AFB) I'd to thank my fellow AFB members and independent bloggers Horace Dediu, Dennis Hildebrand, Turley Muller, Daniel Tello and Andy M. Zaky for their participation in the Apple 2.0 quarterly estimate comparisons as well as AFB members Jeff Fosberg, Alexis Cabot, Luke Kittell, Chas McKenna, Patrick Smellie, Adam Thompson and Mark Beauch. This quarter I'd like to see more of the AFB members participating in the quarterly analyst comparisons enter the blogosphere. Each of you are standouts and should more actively publish your insights and analysis.

The purpose of Posts At Eventide is to provide a wide range of information and analysis on the performance of Apple Inc. Thank you to all of the active members of the AFB mentioned above for being an inspiration to continue the hard work.

Robert Paul Leitao

AAPL FQ2 Analyst Estimates: The Revenue And Net Income Test

On December 19th, 2010 I published a post titled Apple: Testing Analyst EPS Estimates With Revenue Forecasts. In that post I demonstrated a fairly easy method to test the relationship between an analyst's revenue and eps estimates. 

In Apple's 1st fiscal quarter of FY 2011 (the December quarter) roughly 22.45% of each revenue dollar flowed to the net income line. In this post I'm comparing the March quarter revenue and eps estimates of 14 unaffiliated analysts and 34 Wall Street analysts as published by Philip Elmer-DeWitt at Apple 2.0 to determine each analyst's net income to revenue ratio.

Bloggers Versus The Pros
Each quarter Apple 2.0 publishes analyst estimates and categorizes the estimates based on the affiliation of the analysts on the list - professional Wall Street analysts or unaffiliated analysts such as myself. My March quarter estimates are published in a separate post at Posts At Eventide and are included in the list. There's usually a wide gap in the average revenue and eps estimates between the members of the two groups. The gap in the March quarter estimates between the professional Wall Street analysts and the unaffiliated analysts illustrates this consistent trend. Not only is there a gap in the average revenue and eps estimates, there are also gaps in the estimated percentage of revenue the analysts suggest will flow to Apple's net income line.

Revenue and Net Income Estimates By Analyst
To determine the percentage of revenue each analyst estimates will flow to the net income line, I multiplied the published eps estimates as provided by Apple 2.0 by a constant of 937.5 million shares (an estimate of the number of fully diluted shares in the March quarter) and then divided that outcome by each analyst's revenue estimate that had been rounded to the nearest $100 million.

With the exception of Scott Craig, Andy Hargreaves, Toni Sacconaghi and Mike Abramsky, the Wall Street pros expect Apple's net income to revenue ratio in the March quarter to be below the FQ1 performance. The estimates from Mike Abramsky and Brian Marshall hover around the December quarter's net income to revenue performance along with the estimate from unaffiliated analyst and Apple Finance Board (AFB) member Mark Beauch.

Among the unaffiliated analysts Turley Muller estimates net income to reach about $.2413 of each revenue dollar while bloggers Andy Zaky, Daniel Tello, Robert Paul Leitao and Horace Dediu estimate net income to reach above the $.23 per revenue dollar threshold along with Nicolae Mihalache and AFB members Jeff Fosberg, Alexis Cabot, Luke Kittell, Patrick Smellie, Adam Thompson and Chas McKenna. Please see the table of analyst estimates below the break. The revenue estimates listed are in billions of dollars. 

The AFB AAPL FQ2 Estimate Index

The AFB AAPL FQ2 Estimate Index

The active members of the Apple Finance Board are best described as an assemblage of talented individuals with colorful personalities. They are outspoken, hardworking and focused on understanding everything there is to know about Apple and the company's financial performance.

As a service to the members of the AFB, a popular and well respected discussion board, I'm hosting the revenue and earnings estimates for Apple's second fiscal quarter developed by members of the community. As the host of the index and commentator on the members and their entries I've published my quarterly estimates in a separate blog entry at Posts At Eventide. 

This is the second consecutive quarter AFB member quarterly estimates have been collected and published. Although several members are new to the quarterly estimate development process newness to publishing estimates belies years of studying Apple as a company and years of familiarity with the company's popular and award-winning products. 

The average estimate of the 24 AFB members participating in the FQ2 index indicates expected revenue of $25.746 billion and earnings per share of $6.39. This is in contrast to the current Wall Street consensus of $23.15 billion in revenue and eps of $5.32. The AFB member revenue estimate represents an expected 90.7% rise in revenue in the quarter and eps growth of 91.9% over the prior-year period. All numbers in the chart below are in millions except per share data. 

Knowing the active members of the AFB from years of moderating the discussion board, it's a pleasure to host the FQ2 index at Posts At Eventide. Comments on the index can be made below and for registered members of the AFB in the topic created specifically for this discussion. 

Robert Paul Leitao


(Post edited 04/10/2011 to include estimates from Andy M. Zaky)

Posts At Eventide Resource Guide

Posts At Eventide Resource Guide
As a moderator of the Apple Finance Board and an independent Apple analyst, two of the challenges I encounter in preparing quarterly estimates are finding useful historical information about Apple's quarterly results and formatting that information for purposes of analysis.

My AAPL quarterly estimates and share price forecasts are influenced by the company's most recent results. Consequently, finding and storing relevant financial information is essential in the estimate and forecast development process. As a benefit to members of the AFB and regular readers of this blog, I've posted a Posts At Eventide Resource Guide comprised of  links to Eventide posts that provide financial information for use in the developing quarterly estimates for future periods based at least in part on the company's recent results. 

It's my desire for this work to be a benefit to all readers seeking to understand Apple's recent quarterly performances and to serve as a repository of information about the company's quarterly financial results for the benefit of other independent analysts preapring quarterly estimates and share price forecasts. 

To maintain relevance and timeliness, the listing below includes only AAPL-related articles published over the most recent 12 months. 

Posts At Eventide AAPL analysis articles listed by month of publication. 

Robert Paul Leitao

The AFB AAPL Price Target Index - February 2011 Edition

The AFB AAPL Price Target Index - February 2011 Edition

The Apple Finance Board is home to some of the best known and hardest working independent AAPL analysts on the planet. As a service to the members of the AFB, a popular and well respected discussion board, I'm hosting the index of AFB AAPL price targets and share price forecasts developed by the members here at Posts At Eventide.

This post is an update to the initial AFB AAPL Price Target Index published in January. The participants in this index represent a cross section of AFB members ranging from well known AAPL analysts Horace Dediu, Daniel Tello, Turley Muller and Andy M. Zaky, to long-time AFB members Mark Beauch and Ron Smith and newer members such as Dennis Hildebrand. In all, twenty four (24) members of the Apple Finance Board are represented in the index.

AFB AAPL Price Target Index Averages

Index participants submitted AAPL price targets for the first day of the month following the release of Apple's quarterly earnings reports through February 1, 2012 and submitted associated ranges for the share price. Comments on the index can be made at the bottom of this post and for registered members of the AFB in the topic created specifically for this discussion.  Thank you to the index participants for submitting their share price targets and anticipated trading ranges. 

The graph and data table below indicate the average AAPL price targets of the two dozen index participants.