On October 18th Apple will announce results for the company's 4th fiscal quarter ended September 24th. To gauge expectations for the quarter, we asked members of the AAPL Independent Analysts group on Linkedin and members of the Apple Finance Board who have participated in prior quarterly indexes to submit estimates of the company's 4th fiscal quarter performance.
Among the fourteen individuals who submitted estimates for this September quarter index are well known independent analysts Horace Dediu and Daniel Tello, returning analysts Navin Nagrani and Patrick Smellie and newcomers Michael Cranston and Martin Epstein. Collectively these individuals represent a cross section of the AAPL independent analyst community and come from various professional backgrounds and career interests.
On average index participants anticipate the following September quarter unit sales results:
Macs | 4,677,500 | 20.40% YOY Rise | ||||
iPhones | 23,765,071 | 68.52% YOY Rise | ||||
iPods | 7,158,857 | 20.91% YOY Decline | ||||
iPads | 13,624,214 | 225.32% YOY Rise | ||||
Notes on the Unit Sales Numbers:
Mac sales: Over the first nine months of FY 2011, Macintosh unit sales rose 21.1%. The index average is inline with the recent unit sales trend and reflects confidence in Mac sales during the recent back-to-school season.
iPhone sales: The index average reflects expectations of a slower rate of growth in iPhone unit sales in the 4th quarter due to the release of the iPhone 5 in the holiday quarter. During the first nine months of the fiscal year iPhone unit sales rose 113%.
iPod sales: The Apple iPod remains in a state of steady unit sales decline. The iOS-based Apple iPod touch remains the biggest revenue generator among the available iPod models. Apple's decision this year to offer $100 in iTunes content to students purchasing a new Mac versus a free iPod touch will influence iPod unit sales results in the quarter.
iPad sales: The index average suggests anticipation of strong iPad unit sales in the September quarter as Apple strived to resolve the challenge of constrained product supplies. Index participants expect a rise in unit sales of 225% over the prior-year period.
