Why Apple Will Beat The Street

Apple ended November trading at $585.28 per share. At the closing price on November 30th, the shares traded at 13.28 times trailing12-month earnings and off 17% from the all-time high of $705.07 set on September 21, 2012. In the ten weeks since the all-time high, analysts have reduced their expectations for the company's December quarter and the fiscal year ending in late September. The changes in analyst expectations have contributed to the recent downward pressure on the share price. 

Apple will beat the Street's revenue and earnings consensus estimates for the December quarter and the Street's consensus estimates for the current fiscal year. In today's article I will explore the factors that will deliver an earnings surprise when Apple's quarterly results are released in late January. I expect the share price to retrace to the all-time high by the first trading day of February 2013 through a gradual recovery of lost ground over the next sixty days. Management's eps guidance and the Street's consensus eps estimate are not supported by the company's earnings to revenue ratios measured over the most recent eight fiscal quarters. 

Apple's Guidance and Analyst Expectations

For the December quarter, management offered revenue guidance of $52 billion and earnings per share guidance of $11.75. Management's guidance suggests revenue growth of 12.23% over the prior-year period and a decline in eps for the quarter of $2.12 or 15.28% from the $13.87 in earnings per share achieved last year. Management is quick to remind analysts the prior-year period contained 14 weeks versus Apple's usual 13-week fiscal quarters. In contrast to Apple's very low guidance numbers, Wall Street analysts are currently expecting revenue of $54.52 billion, representing expected revenue growth of 17.68% and earnings per share of $13.30, representing an expected decline in eps of 4.10%.

Net Income Per Revenue Dollar

Using an estimated 950 million fully diluted shares outstanding as a constant, management's December quarter guidance suggests about 21.5% of revenue will flow to net income. The Street consensus is a bit more positive, suggesting 23.17% of revenue will reach the bottom line. In an article published in early November, I illustrated the percentages of Apple's quarterly revenue that reached the net income line over the most recent twelve fiscal quarters. There's a direct correlation between the percentage of net income per revenue dollar on a quarterly basis and the iPhone product cycle. The graph below illustrates the percentage of revenue that flowed to net income over the most recent eight quarters as a reference for the performance comparisons in today's article. 

Net income per revenue dollar tends to fall during the quarters in which Apple's flagship iPhone handset reaches the end of its annual cycle. Net income per revenue dollar tends to rise during the first two quarters following the annual iPhone refresh. This is because the iPhone has the highest gross margin among Apple's device lines and the quarters in which the iPhone represents the highest percentage of revenue also yield the highest net income per revenue dollar.

Apple's Rates Of Revenue And Earnings Growth
The graph below illustrates Apple highest rates of revenue growth occur in quarters following the annual iPhone refresh and in these quarters Apple delivers the highest net income per revenue dollar.

The iPhone 4 introduced a new handset form factor while the iPhone 4S maintained the same form factor for a second model year. Although the iPhone 4S generated higher gross margin than its predecessor, it had an abbreviated period of peak demand. The iPhone 4 maintained strong global demand into the June quarter of FY2011. The iPhone 4S peaked as a product early in the March quarter of FY2012. The falloff in iPhone 4S demand through the June and September quarters of the fiscal year reduced the company's rates of year-over-year revenue growth and diminished the percentage of revenue that flowed to the net income line. 

Apple: Follow The Road Paved With Gold

On Friday, November 2, 2012, Apple closed down on the day 3.31% at $576.80. This was the lowest closing price for the shares since July 27, 2012 and the shares ended the day and the trading week off more than 18% from the all-time high of $705.07 set on September 21, 2012.

For long-term investors, Friday's closing price represents an excellent entry opportunity to realize very strong share price gains in the months ahead while capturing a more than 1.8% annual dividend yield. Apple is currently trading with more than 22% of the share price backed by cash and a price-earnings multiple at the low-end of a nearly three-year trend. 


Apple: Follow The Road Paved With Gold
The graph below illustrates at Friday's closing price the company's cash and marketable securities per share represented 22.17% of the share price. Meanwhile, the company's price-earnings multiple has fallen to just over 13x trailing 12-month earnings. This is despite 59.5% earnings per share growth in the fiscal year ended September 29, 2012. The high cash per share and very low price-earnings multiple is occurring at the beginning of a six-month period that will deliver record revenue and earnings for the company.

Using the first trading day of the month following the release of quarterly earnings since February 1, 2010, Apple's cash per share has continued to rise while the company's price-earnings multiple has continued in a steady decline. From a price-earnings multiple of 20.08 times trailing 12-month earnings on November 1, 2010 to a multiple of 13.06 times trailing twelve-month earnings on November 2, 2012, Apple's multiple has fallen about 35% while cash per share has risen about 133% percent.

Since February 1, 2010, Apple's trailing 12-month earnings per share has risen over 331% while the share price has advanced by only 196% over this thirty-three month period. Not only will Apple's share price retrace to new highs over the next six months, investors will be rewarded with a quarterly dividend of $2.65 per share and the prospect of significant additional appreciation while the shares maintain a conservative earnings multiple. 

Apple's Net Income Thrill Ride

Last week in an article titled, Apple's Revenue Growth: A Dual-Track Bullet Train, I analyzed Apple's rates of revenue growth and the company's relentless geographic expansion that supports the fast rates of growth. In today's article, I am providing an overview of Apple's net income growth and the influences on the company's rising profitability.

Apple's Net Income Thrill Ride
Apple is not only a fast-growing mega-cap, the company has defied conventional wisdom by increasing the percentage of revenue that flows to the net income line while revenue and in many cases market share, continue to rise across the company's major product lines. 

The graph below illustrates the rising percentage of each revenue dollar that flows to the company's net income line:

Over the most recent ten fiscal quarters, the percent of revenue that has reached the net income line has leaped from 21.54% of revenue in FQ1 2010 to 29.66% of revenue in FQ2 2012. Rising gross margin due to superb supply chain management, economies of scale, operating expense discipline and moderating tax rates have all factored into Apple's impressive percentages of revenue that have flowed to the net income line. 

Apple's Gross Margins

The graph below illustrates Apple's gross margins over the most recent ten fiscal quarters.

There's no disputing the fact the iPhone 4S has delivered very high gross margins. However, the high gross margins delivered by the iPhone 4S over the two most recent quarters were due primarily to economies of scale and not increases in average revenue per unit sold. In FQ1 2010, average revenue per iPhone unit was $638 versus $647 per unit in FQ2 2012. In FQ4 2011, average revenue per iPhone handset sold was $643.  Revenue per handset includes the revenue generated by Apple through the sales of Apple-branded and third party iPhone accessories. My Apple Unit Sales page chronicles the unit sales growth of each of Apple's major device lines over the most recent fourteen fiscal quarters. 

The iPhone's high gross margins exemplify Apple's extraordinary supply chain management and the benefits of economies of scale. This is not an issue of rising revenue per handset. It's primarily an issue of unit sales growth. 

Apple's Monster Quarter - The Sequel

Last fall I dubbed Apple's December quarter "The Monster Quarter". The company's December quarter performance lived up to the name. In the 14-week period ended December 31, 2011, Apple reported recognized revenue growth of 73.27% to $46.333 billion and eps growth of 115.71% to $13.87. 

Apple's Monster Quarter - The Sequel
Today I am calling the company's March quarter "Apple's Monster Quarter - The Sequel." For the 13-week period ended March 31, 2012, I am estimating reported revenue of $44.028 billion and earnings per share of $13.15, representing anticipated revenue growth of 78.49% and eps growth of 105.47%. 

The chart below illustrates my estimated revenue mix for the March quarter. I expect the Apple iPad and iPhone to represent 77% of the reported revenue in the quarter and for the iPhone to be the primary product in determining the quarter's revenue growth, gross margin and eps outcome for the period.

Apple: Focus On Earnings Growth, Not The Earnings Multiple

On February 11, 2012, I issued a revised 12-month price target for Apple of $790 per share. Since that date the share price has risen about 10% to Friday's closing price of $545.18. Over the next twelve months I expect the share price to rise at least 45% from Friday's closing price to reach above my published target.

Posts At Eventide Axiom #1: Focus on Earnings Growth, Not The Earnings Multiple

In FY2012, I forecast Apple's earnings per share to rise at least 100% from FY2011's $27.68 to over $56. Apple began this fiscal year with an eps gain of over 115% to $13.87 in the December quarter. The March and June quarters will deliver eps growth rates at or near 100% due to strong unit sales of the iPhone 4S and strong unit sales of the new iPad models that will be released later this month. This fiscal year will end with an extraordinary high eps growth rate in the September quarter due to the company's languid performance in the prior-year period. The release of the iPhone 4S in the December quarter creates a soft prior-year comparison in the quarter that closes the current fiscal year. 

Even at a modest multiple of 12.5 times trailing 12-month earnings, at $56 in FY2012 earnings per share, Apple's share price will reach $700 by early November. While it's not practical to forecast the earnings multiple the market will award Apple, it's also not necessary for the multiple to expand to reach my stated 12-month price target. At Friday's closing price the shares are currently trading at 15.52 times trailing 12-month earnings. Even if the multiple contracts, the share price advance will remain on track. 

Earnings growth will deliver strong share price appreciation for Apple whether or not the earnings multiple expands or contracts. 

Posts At Eventide Axiom #2: Applying The "Law of Large Numbers" to Apple is Bunk!

In the December quarter, nearly 75% of Apple's reported revenue was sourced from products that did not exist in the market as recently as five years ago today. With the forthcoming refresh of the Apple iPad product line, the percentage of reported revenue generated by the iPhone and iPad will continue to rise well into next fiscal year. At this time, the market for the Apple iPad can not be accurately determined nor defined and the product line remains in a nascent phase of global market development. 


The chart below illustrates the sources of Apple's $46.33 billion in revenue in FQ1 2012. 

Apple Price Target: $790 Per Share

Today, I am publishing an updated price target for Apple of $790 per share. This target forecasts a 60% gain in the share price from the closing price of $493.42 on Friday, February 10, 2012. I consider this price target to be moderate based on the expectations of strong revenue and earnings growth over the next 12 months and the low valuation range in which the shares currently trade, despite the recent run-up in price. 

Over the past 10 trading days, the shares have risen about 10% from the closing price of $447.28 on January 27th to Friday's closing price of $493.42. However, this recent gain is a market response to Apple's strong December quarter outcome and does not represent a new valuation range for the shares. The shares continue to trade at a significant discount to near-term growth. 

Apple's Current Valuation

The graph below illustrates, despite the near 100% growth in earnings per share over the most recent four fiscal quarters, at Friday's closing price the shares have risen only 43% in value since February 1, 2011. 

Over the past 12 months the company's cash and marketable securities per share has continued to rise as a percentage of the share price. At Friday's closing price, cash and marketable securities per share represented 21% of the share price.  

Apple: Rising Revenue, Falling Costs Per Revenue Dollar

For the 14-week period ended December 31, 2011, Apple reported record revenue in the fiscal quarter of $46.333 billion representing a 73% year-over-year gain. The company also reported a 115.7% rise in earnings per share to $13.87. No one can dispute the success of the company's popular products. But Apple's extraordinary eps growth in the December quarter and eps growth over the past two fiscal years was influenced by more than revenue growth alone. The company's focus on cost discipline is generating earnings growth at a much faster pace than the underlying rate of growth in revenue. 

Apple's Net Income Per Revenue Dollar

The graph below illustrates the rising percentage of reported revenue that has flowed to the net income line over the most recent nine fiscal quarters. In the December quarter 27.90% of reported revenue flowed to the net income line. This does not include the beneficial impact on net income from interest and other returns on the company's holdings in cash and marketable securities. The value of those assets totaled $97.6 billion at the end of the December quarter. 

Apple's Expenses Per Revenue Dollar

Over the most recent nine fiscal quarters, the percentage of reported revenue consumed by expenses has fallen from a high of 79.60% in the 3rd quarter of FY2010 to a low of 72.10% in the recent 1st quarter of FY2012. The graph below illustrates the percentage of revenue consumed by cost of sales (the inverse of gross margin), operating expenses and taxes.

Apple: March Quarter Expectations After Record FQ1 Results

On Tuesday Apple announced record quarterly revenue of $46.333 billion and record eps of $13.87 in the December quarter. The 73.2% rise in revenue and 115.7% rise in earnings per share were fueled by strong domestic demand for iPhones, iPads and Macintosh personal computers and by gross margin in the quarter of 44.7%.

In announcing the company's FQ1 results for the 14-week period, Apple offered revenue guidance of $32.5 billion for the 13-week quarter ending March 31, 2012 and earnings guidance of $8.50 per share. Management's guidance suggests revenue growth of 31.75% and eps growth of 32.8%. Once again, Apple's guidance will be proven decidedly conservative. 

December Quarter Revenue Growth Recap

Apple's 73.2% revenue growth in the December quarter was aided by a 14-week fiscal period encompassing the immediate post-Christmas shopping week and extraordinary revenue growth in Apple's Americas region, exclusive of the company's retail stores. The Americas delivered 92% revenue growth to $17.714 billion, representing 38.2% of total reported revenue on strong sales of the Apple iPhone 4S. 

Despite the well publicized economic problems in Europe, the region turned in a strong revenue growth rate of 55% for the quarter. Apple's Asia-Pacific region, absent the release of the iPhone 4S through an authorized carrier on China's mainland, turned in a respectable 54% revenue growth rate. The Asia-Pacific region will be the catalyst for robust revenue and earnings growth in the March quarter.

On To The March Quarter

In a recent article titled Where Apple Makes Its Money, I suggested the Asia-Pacific region will surpass Europe as Apple's second biggest revenue region this fiscal year. In FY2011, China was the only country outside the US to deliver more than 10% of Apple's reported revenue total. The release of the iPhone 4S on China's mainland in the March quarter will generate greater than 100% revenue growth in the Asia-Pacific region in this three-month period. 

The Apple iPhone

In the December quarter Apple defied skeptics who questioned the company's ability to ramp iPhone supply to meet demand. In the holiday quarter iPhone unit sales rose 128% to 37.044 million units and handset sales revenue, inclusive of accessories and related products, rose 133% to $24.417 billion or 52.7% of the company's total reported revenue. In the March quarter, the rate of iPhone unit sales growth may again reach triple digits due to the China iPhone 4S rollout and the company's proven ability to meet demand for product. At the end of the December quarter, the iPhone's global channel supply of about 6 million units represented less than three weeks of December quarter sales and was well below the targeted range of 4 to 6 weeks of supply. 

In addition to the expected strong iPhone sell-through in the March quarter, Apple can add millions of units to channel supply before the end of the period and in support of the continuing global roll out of the iPhone 4S handset. For the March quarter, I'm targeting iPhone unit sales of 36 million units. 

The Apple iPad

In FQ1, Apple sold 15.434 million iPad units and sell-through was slightly higher than reported sales. This represented 111% unit sales growth even as consumer expectations for a product line refresh to occur in the March quarter continue to grow. During the conference call with analysts following Tuesday's earnings release, management mentioned the iPad's fast adoption in the education market. With the prospect of the iPad 3's release in the March quarter and the chance the iPad 2 will remain a shipping product, Apple could deliver in the area of 200% iPad unit sales growth in this fiscal period. Education channel sales will be an iPad unit sales growth catalyst in the upcoming June quarter.

The Macintosh

The Mac's unit sales performance exemplifies the "Apple product mutual halo effect." Record Apple retail store traffic following the release of the iPhone 4S in October assisted in boosting December quarter Mac unit sales 26% to 5.198 million units. In the Asia-Pacific region Mac unit sales rose 58%. I expect March quarter Mac unit sales of about 4.7 million. Both the Asia-Pacific region and the Apple retail segment will be unit sales growth leaders in this three-month period. 

For The March Quarter

My preliminary March quarter revenue estimate stands at $41 billion, representing anticipated revenue growth of 66% and an earnings per share growth rate of about 80% to $11.50. Apple's guidance for the quarter of $32.5 billion in revenue and eps of $8.50 is consistently conservative. I currently expect Apple to beat guidance by $3 per share.

On The Fiscal Year

For the fiscal year ending in late September, I now expect revenue exceeding $175 billion and earnings per exceeding $50. FY2013 is on track to be a more than one-quarter trillion dollar revenue year. Over the next two weeks I will be updating my current 12-month price target of $640. I expect the updated price target to land in the vicinity of $700 per share. 

Apple's Earnings Quality

Apple's gross margin in the December quarter reached 44.7% and net income reached nearly 28.2% of revenue.  I expect gross margin and the percentage of revenue that flows to the net income line to remain high through the March and June fiscal quarters due to the continuing global roll out of the iPhone 4S handset. For as long as revenue growth rates remain greater than 50%, the percentage of revenue consumed by operating expenses will continue to decline. In the December quarter operating expenses came in at $3.363 billion or just above 7.25% of reported revenue. The declining percentage of revenue consumed by operating expenses contributed to the very strong net income growth in the quarter and will contribute to extraordinarily high net income growth rates this fiscal year. 

Robert Paul Leitao

Disclosure: The author is long Apple shares

Apple's "Monster Quarter" Will Deliver Monster-Sized Results

Apple stands at the threshold of becoming the nation's largest technology company. Apple will soon surpass Hewlett-Packard in quarterly revenue while delivering more than $.25 of each revenue dollar to the net income line. By the end of this month and in response to the company's December quarter results, Apple will again surpass Exxon-Mobil in market cap to become the nation's most highly valued enterprise.

To put Apple's recent rates of growth in perspective, in FY2011 that ended in late September, the company's $108.249 billion in revenue represented a 677% rise in revenue in the six years since FY2005 and the $27.68 in earnings per share represented 1,686% growth over this same six-year period. Apple is the undisputed enterprise success story of the new millennium.

It's product innovation that drives Apple's accelerated rates of growth and it's innovation that will deliver monster-sized results in what I have dubbed "Apple's Monster Quarter."

Today I am publishing my revenue and earnings estimates for Apple's first quarter of FY2012 ended December 31st. For the quarter I estimate revenue of about $44 billion and earnings per share of $12.20. In this one quarter Apple's revenue and eps results will most likely exceed the company's total revenue and earnings per share for all four quarters of FY2009 that ended just over two years ago. These estimates represent an expectation of 64.54% year-over-year revenue growth in the quarter and 89.75% growth in earnings per share.

The Sources of Apple's Frenetic Rates of Growth

Apple's accelerated rates of growth are fueled by the popularity of the company's iOS-based products including the iPhone and iPad and the company's relentless geographic expansion. Currently, the only practical limits on Apple's rates of growth are device production capacity and the pace at which the company can create sales and support infrastructure in underserved global markets. At this time Apple is addressing only a fraction of the global market for the company's digital lifestyle products. 

Although domestic revenue as a percent of total revenue will rise in the December quarter due to the initial release of the iPhone 4S in the United States and the addition of Sprint as an authorized iPhone carrier, by next fiscal year revenue sourced from outside the United States may represent two-thirds of the company's revenue total.

The graph below illustrates the influence of the iPhone and iPad on my anticipated December quarter revenue outcome. Collectively the two products represent about 71.5% of estimated revenue in the quarter and both products have been brought to market within the past five years. 

Where Apple Makes Its Money

In the past ten years Apple has transitioned from being primarily a personal computer maker with annual revenue of just over $5 billion to a global enterprise with literally twenty times the revenue, retail store locations around the world and four major product lines including the popular iPhone line of smartphones. Today I'm taking a look at where the company now makes its money. Over 60% of Apple's revenue is currently sourced from the sales of products and services outside the United States.

Management By Geographic Region
According to the company's regulatory filings, Apple "manages its business primarily on a geographic basis." The company's geographic segments consist of the Americas, Europe, Japan, Asia-Pacific and Retail. For Apple's current fiscal year (FY2012) ending in September, I estimate revenue growth of 57% to $170 billion. This is following the 66% revenue rise to $108.249 billion that occurred last fiscal year. The company's strong rates of revenue growth are fueled in part by continuing international expansion.

The US and China: Apple's Revenue Leaders
When Apple retail store sales are assigned to the countries of sales origin, Apple's FY2011 revenue from US sales comes in at  $41.812 billion. This represents 38.6% of the fiscal year's total. I expect the US to deliver about 37% of reported revenue in FY2012 on revenue growth of at least 50% in the region. As early as FY2013, non-US revenue sources may deliver 67% or two-thirds of the company's top line number. China is the only country outside of the US to deliver over 10% of recognized revenue in FY2011. China's $12.472 billion in revenue represented 11.52% of the company's $108.249 billion total.

In fiscal years 2011 and 2010, revenue growth in the Asia-Pacific segment exceeded 150% and in FY2011 Asia-Pacific delivered almost 21% of the company's recognized revenue. In FY2012, I expect the Asia-Pacific region, inclusive of China, to surpass Europe in revenue generation and become Apple's second largest geographic revenue segment.

The pie chart below illustrates each geographic segment's percentage contribution to Apple's revenue in FY2011. The numbers include retail store sales as a separate geographic segment as formally reported by Apple:

Apple's 25% Solution

Make no mistake: Apple is primarily a hardware device maker. From beginning to end and at every spot in between, the company is focused on the sales of hardware devices and the development of high margins on products sold. The nearly 25% of recognized revenue that flowed to the net income line in FY 2011 is what I call "Apple's 25% solution." It's Apple's formula  for consistent earnings growth and management's solution to the complex questions that surround strategic product decisions. 

iTunes, The Apple Retail Stores and Other Services

Although Apple is the world's largest distributor of recorded music, a major distributor of software through the app stores and a global retailer with 357 Apple store locations as of the end of the September quarter, these ventures are designed to boost device sales and provide competitive advantages in the company's device markets. 

iTunes, the Apple retail stores and other software and service ventures are constituent to device sales, they support high gross margins and efforts to differentiate the company's product in the competitive global marketplace. They have no other primary or secondary purpose. Apple has no major ventures or areas of operation that could be considered ancillary to the sales of hardware devices.

Apple's Revenue Growth is a Function of Device Sales Only

The graph below illustrates Apple's sources of revenue in the fiscal year ended September 24, 2011. Almost 90% of recognized revenue was sourced from hardware device sales. Sales of iOS-based devices (iPhone, iPad and iPod touch) represented close to two-thirds of the $108.249 billion in revenue generated during the twelve-month period. Revenue generated through iTunes and sales of software products such as Mac OS X, 10.7 represented just over 10% of revenue and this revenue is exclusively tied to the company's device sales efforts. 

Why Apple's FQ4 Earnings Will Approach $10 Per Share

There's no other company on the planet that excites the imagination of its product users as much as Apple. In developing revenue and earnings estimates for the company, I am guided by one overarching principle:

Apple doesn't sell products. Apple crafts customer relationships and those relationships sell Apple products. 

Understanding Apple's Pathways To Success
Understanding Apple's pathways to success requires more than an effort at counting the number of individual products that might be sold. It necessitates understanding the company's eco-systems and what motivates enterprises and consumers to invest in the purchase of Apple-branded products. 

My analysis relies heavily on the company's historical growth trends and an evaluation of the phenomena that occur when appealing and abundant content is made readily available for smartly designed devices. These products are offered to customers who have established a relationship with Apple through iTunes, through visits to the company's retail stores or have a long-standing relationship with the company through the use of Apple's popular Macintosh line of personal computers. 

Below are my estimates for the company's September quarter and an overview of the elements that underly the assumption Apple's FQ4 earnings will approach $10 per share:

	Revenue Segment		Units FQ4 ’11	Units FQ4 ’10	Unit Growth	FQ4 Revenue
	Macintosh		4,500,000	3,885,000	15.83%	5,737,500,000
	iPhone		26,500,000	14,102,000	87.92%	17,225,000,000
	iPod		7,250,000	9,051,000	-19.90%	1,268,750,000
	iPad		14,500,000	4,188,000	246.23%	9,425,000,000
	Peripherals					620,000,000
	Software, Services					800,000,000
	Other Music					1,625,000,000
	Revenue Total					36,701,250,000
	Cost of Sales		58.20%			-21,360,127,500
	Gross Margin		41.80%			15,341,122,500
	Operating Expenses		8.79%			-3,225,000,000
	Operating Income					12,116,122,500
	Other Income					200,000,000
	Income Before Taxes					12,316,122,500
	Provision For Taxes		23.50%			-2,894,000,000
	Net Income					9,422,122,500
	Earnings Per Share		(Based on 940.825 million shares)			10.01