Sunday, April 3, 2011

The AFB AAPL FQ2 Estimate Index

The AFB AAPL FQ2 Estimate Index
The active members of the Apple Finance Board are best described as an assemblage of talented individuals with colorful personalities. They are outspoken, hardworking and focused on understanding everything there is to know about Apple and the company's financial performance.
As a service to the members of the AFB, a popular and well respected discussion board, I'm hosting the revenue and earnings estimates for Apple's second fiscal quarter developed by members of the community. As the host of the index and commentator on the members and their entries I've published my quarterly estimates in a separate blog entry at Posts At Eventide
This is the second consecutive quarter AFB member quarterly estimates have been collected and published. Although several members are new to the quarterly estimate development process newness to publishing estimates belies years of studying Apple as a company and years of familiarity with the company's popular and award-winning products. 
The average estimate of the 24 AFB members participating in the FQ2 index indicates expected revenue of $25.746 billion and earnings per share of $6.39. This is in contrast to the current Wall Street consensus of $23.15 billion in revenue and eps of $5.32. The AFB member revenue estimate represents an expected 90.7% rise in revenue in the quarter and eps growth of 91.9% over the prior-year period. All numbers in the chart below are in millions except per share data. 
Knowing the active members of the AFB from years of moderating the discussion board, it's a pleasure to host the FQ2 index at Posts At EventideComments on the index can be made below and for registered members of the AFB in the topic created specifically for this discussion
Robert Paul Leitao


(Post edited 04/10/2011 to include estimates from Andy M. Zaky)













The AFB Member AAPL FQ2 Estimate Index











Gross

Other
Pre-Tax
Tax
Net

Member Name
Revenue
Margin
OpEx
Income
Income
Expense
Income
EPS









batfink
27,103
10,868
2,450
0
8,418
1,935
6,482
6.91
macorange
27,070
10,828
2,400
0
8,428
2,022
6,405
6.83
Nagrani
29,038
10,889
2,500
0
8,389
2,055
6,334
6.79
Red Shirted Ensign
26,197
10,609
2,400
0
8,209
1,887
6,321
6.72
Gregg Thurman
25,628
10,251
2,364
136
8,023
1,876
6,146
6.57
cdodge
25,454
10,207
2,446
100
7,861
1,705
6,155
6.57
AHHA
25,571
10,459
2,431
67
8,094
1,982
6,111
6.52
ChasMac77
25,639
10,382
2,500
70
7,952
1,907
6,044
6.45
Tetrachloride
25,730
10,210
2,500
100
7,810
1,816
5,994
6.40
PurpleApple
25,306
10,123
2,416
94
7,801
1,833
5,968
6.37
pats
25,716
10,415
2,632
90
7,873
1,928
5,944
6.35
westech
27,035
10,408
2,600
0
7,808
1,873
5,934
6.35
Mercel
25,003
10,114
2,500
145
7,759
1,822
5,936
6.34
michelc
24,960
9,934
2,246
100
7,788
1,853
5,935
6.33
25,265
10,268
2,410
45
7,903
1,975
5,927
6.32
snoozzzer
26,806
10,186
2,500
75
7,761
1,900
5,860
6.27
awcabot
24,997
10,105
2,479
137
7,763
1,901
5,861
6.26
CdnPhoto
24,446
9,778
2,150
130
7,758
1,939
5,819
6.22
25,506
10,242
2,531
50
7,761
1,938
5,823
6.21
Mav
25,330
10,056
2,406
50
7,700
1,924
5,776
6.21
adamthompson3232
25,175
10,180
2,569
65
7,676
1,873
5,803
6.20
24,733
10,017
2,420
60
7,657
1,837
5,820
6.20
petertje
25,781
10,055
2,510
100
7,645
1,872
5,772
6.15
mbeauch
24,421
9,670
2,400
0
7,270
1,744
5,525
5.87









Average
25,746
10,261
2,448
67
7,879
1,892
5,987
6.39





Unit Sales Estimates
AFB member petertje has charted the unit sales estimates provided by the index participants. His charts are posted below by product line:

iPhone Unit Sales Estimates
Macintosh Unit Sales Estimates
iPad Unit Sales Estimates
iPod Unit Sales Estimates






4 comments:

  1. I just have to ask, when was the last time the 2nd qtr beat the first qtr? Robert, would have really liked to have seen your numbers included. :) Now where is my rum? :)

    ReplyDelete
  2. It's quite evident that Mark needs more sunshine in his forecast. Maybe Vegas will help. ;)

    ReplyDelete
  3. Hello Robert,
    I know this question was asked before in a seperate article (AFB Price Target Index for March 2011) but I thought I'd ask a second time since the news of the Nasdaq reweighting came out. I've read that many funds would need to sell off their $AAPL shares to comply with the new reweighting, which is to occur May 2nd. I've read a variety of opinions, that most of the selling would be done on May 2nd, that the selling would continue for months, etc.
    Does the reweighting have any impact to the price target indexes? Is most of the AFB still expecting 380-390ish by May 1st?
    Thanks again.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Anonymous:

    The rebalancing of the index will have only a momentary impact on the share price. Long-term it may be a positive. Apple is no longer carrying the index. However, it's possible over the next couple of years Apple again will comprise 20% of the index (or close to that weighting) based on continued strong share price appreciation.

    ReplyDelete