The AFB AAPL Price Target Index

Please see The AFB AAPL Price Target Index - February 2011 Edition posted February 15, 2011 


The AFB AAPL Price Target Index

The active members of the Apple Finance Board are best described as an assemblage of talented individuals with colorful personalities. They are outspoken, hardworking and focused on understanding everything there is to know about Apple and the company's financial performance.

As a service to the members of the AFB, a popular and well respected discussion board, I'm hosting the the AAPL price targets and share price forecasts developed by the members here at Posts At Eventide. As the host of the index and commentator on the members and their entires, I'll be publishing my price targets and forecasts in separate posts at Eventide. 

This index is the second in a series of polls soliciting the input of AFB members. The AFB AAPL FQ1 Estimate Index was published on January 1, 2011. 

The participants in this index represent a cross section of AFB members ranging from well known AAPL analysts Horace Dediu under his asymco moniker and Daniel Tello, commonly known as deagol, to long-time members macorange and ChasMac77, and members who have joined the discussion group within the past year such as Gregg Thurman. 


AFB members tend to be bullish and their expectations for near-term appreciation in Apple's share price is evidenced in the numbers. AAPL closed today at $341.64, following the iPhone on the Verizon network announcement and ahead of next Tuesday's release of the company's results for the December quarter. The average share price target for May 1, 2011 of $385 per share evidences expectations of a more than 12.5% rise in the share price between now and the first day of the month following the release of the March quarter results. The average target price for just over a year from now calls for a nearly 57% share price advance from today's closing price.


Comments on the index can be made at the bottom of this post and for registered members of the AFB in the topic created specifically for this discussion.  

Below are the average price targets and share price ranges for the 13 AFB members participating in the index by providing projections for the selected dates:

	AFB	Index	Averages
	Date	Low	High	Target
	May 1, 2011	345	411	385
	Aug 1, 2011	377	455	425
	Nov 1, 2011	425	510	475
	Feb 1, 2012	476	581	536

12 Quarters of Mac, iPhone and iPod Unit Sales

12 Quarters of Mac, iPhone and iPod Unit Sales

As an independent analyst I rely heavily on historical data in developing estimates of Apple's future performance. In an October blog post titled Apple's FY2010: A Retrospective I looked at the revenue contributions of each of the company's major product lines. 

Today I'm publishing in table and graph form the unit sales for the Mac, iPhone and iPod  product lines for the most recent twelve fiscal quarters, from FQ1 2008 through FQ4 2010. The numbers are published with little need for analysis. The graphs are each worth 1,000 words. 

I will be updating my CY 2011 AAPL Price Target and Price Forecasts following the release of FQ1 2011 results on January 18th. In the meantime, the table data and graphs in this blog post illustrate Apple's foundation for continuing growth. In FY 2011 (ending in September), I expect Apple to report over $100 billion in revenue and earnings per share at or above $25. Apple's foundation for strong revenue and earnings growth isn't built on any one product line. Although the Apple iPhone and the Apple iPad will generated more than 50% of the company's revenue this fiscal year, each of the company's major revenue segments materially impact overall results. 

The Macintosh

While much attention has been placed on the Apple iPhone and Apple iPad, the Macintosh line of personal computers continues to contribute heavily to the company's overall results. In FY2010 the Macintosh line represented 27% of the company's reported revenue and in the fiscal year unit sales rose 31%. In FY2011 I expect the Mac's strong unit sales growth to continue and for the line to represent roughly 20% of the company's reported revenue for the fiscal year. 

		Unit Sales	Mac	Sequential	YOY
		FQ1 ’08	2,319	7%	44%
		FQ2 ’08	2,289	-1%	51%
		FQ3 ’08	2,496	9%	41%
		FQ4 ’08	2,611	5%	21%
		FQ1 ’09	2,524	-3.33%	8.84%
		FQ2 ’09	2,216	-12.20%	-3.19%
		FQ3 ’09	2,603	17.46%	4.29%
		FQ4 ’09	3,053	17.29%	16.93%
		FQ1 ’10	3,362	10.12%	33.20%
		FQ2 '10	2,943	-12.46%	32.81%
		FQ3 ’10	3,472	17.97%	33.38%
		FQ4 '10	3,885	11.90%	27.25%