Saturday, January 22, 2011

AAPL FQ 1 Revenue Results With And Without The iPad


AAPL FQ 1 Revenue Results With And Without The iPad
On Tuesday Apple reported record revenue of $26.741 billion for the company's 1st fiscal quarter ended on December 25, 2010, representing 70.5% growth in revenue over the prior-year period and a 31.5% rise in revenue sequentially over the fiscal quarter that ended in late September. This frenetic pace of revenue growth was fueled by strong growth in iPhone sales and the emergence of the Apple iPad in the company's product line-up. 
The graph below illustrates the percentage contribution to revenue from each of Apple's largest revenue segments. Combined, the Apple iPhone and the Apple iPad represented 56.38% of Apple's reported revenue. The Macintosh line of personal computers contributed just over 20% to the revenue total and the Apple iPod line represented just over 1/8th of the total at 12.81%. 


AAPL FQ1 ’11 Results As Reported






FQ1 ’11

FQ 1 ’10
FQ 1  ’11
%  of Revenue
Revenue Segment
Revenue
% of Total
Revenue
Growth
Growth
Macintosh
5,430,000,000
20.31%
4,450,000,000
980,000,000
8.86%
iPhone
10,468,000,000
39.15%
5,578,000,000
4,890,000,000
44.22%
iPod
3,425,000,000
12.81%
3,391,000,000
34,000,000
0.31%
iPad
4,608,000,000
17.23%
0
4,608,000,000
41.67%
Peripherals
593,000,000
2.22%
469,000,000
124,000,000
1.12%
Software, Service
786,000,000
2.94%
631,000,000
155,000,000
1.40%
Other Music
1,431,000,000
5.35%
1,164,000,000
267,000,000
2.41%






Total
26,741,000,000
100%
15,683,000,000
11,058,000,000
100.00%

Sunday, January 16, 2011

Apple's Price-Earnings Multiples Before and After Earnings Reports

Apple's Price-Earnings Multiples: Before and After Earnings Reports
On November 14, 2010 I published my most recent AAPL price forecasts and price targets. In that post I set a share price target of $363 for February 1, 2011 with a forecast price range of $346 to $380. On Friday, January 14, 2011, AAPL closed at $348.48 per share, in anticipation of strong December quarter results to be released on Tuesday. 
At Friday's closing price AAPL is trading at 23 times trailing 12-month earnings. This multiple foreshadows a strong December quarter performance and the market's response to this week's announcement the iPhone will soon be available in the US on the Verizon network.
In preparing for revisions to my price forecasts and targets to be published soon after the release of the December quarter results next week, I researched the price-earnings multiples for AAPL just prior to and soon after the public release of quarterly earnings reports for the most recent quarterly periods. The data suggests no matter the recent rise in Apple's share price over the past few weeks, there's room for the share price to run following the release of December quarter results on Tuesday. 
AAPL's Pre-Earnings P/E Multiples
The table data and graph below indicate the closing share price and price-earnings multiple on the 15th of the month and within a week of the release of quarterly earnings reports for the most recent four fiscal quarters. Apple's Friday price-earnings multiple of 23 times trailing earnings is within the range of recent multiples ahead of earnings releases.


Apple's Pre-Earnings Multiples


Date
Price
P/E Multiple

Apr 15, 2010
248.92
24.31

Jul 15, 2010
251.45
21.35

Oct 15, 2010
314.74
23.70

Jan 14, 2011
348.48
23.00