Tuesday, January 11, 2011

The AFB AAPL Price Target Index

The active members of the Apple Finance Board are best described as an assemblage of talented individuals with colorful personalities. They are outspoken, hardworking and focused on understanding everything there is to know about Apple and the company's financial performance.
As a service to the members of the AFB, a popular and well respected discussion board, I'm hosting the the AAPL price targets and share price forecasts developed by the members here at Posts At Eventide. As the host of the index and commentator on the members and their entires, I'll be publishing my price targets and forecasts in separate posts at Eventide
This index is the second in a series of polls soliciting the input of AFB members. The AFB AAPL FQ1 Estimate Index was published on January 1, 2011. 
The participants in this index represent a cross section of AFB members ranging from well known AAPL analysts Horace Dediu under his asymco moniker and Daniel Tello, commonly known as deagol, to long-time members macorange and ChasMac77, and members who have joined the discussion group within the past year such as Gregg Thurman. 


AFB members tend to be bullish and their expectations for near-term appreciation in Apple's share price is evidenced in the numbers. AAPL closed today at $341.64, following the iPhone on the Verizon network announcement and ahead of next Tuesday's release of the company's results for the December quarter. The average share price target for May 1, 2011 of $385 per share evidences expectations of a more than 12.5% rise in the share price between now and the first day of the month following the release of the March quarter results. The average target price for just over a year from now calls for a nearly 57% share price advance from today's closing price.


Comments on the index can be made at the bottom of this post and for registered members of the AFB in the topic created specifically for this discussion.  
Below are the average price targets and share price ranges for the 13 AFB members participating in the index by providing projections for the selected dates:











AFB
Index
Averages







Date
Low
High
Target

May 1, 2011
345
411
385






Aug 1, 2011
377
455
425






Nov 1, 2011
425
510
475






Feb 1, 2012
476
581
536





The AFB members participating in the index have differing views and present a number of different outlooks on Apple's share price performance over the next 12 months. 

The price targets and share price ranges from each AFB member participating in the index:







Mav




Date
Low
High
Target

May 1, 2011
394
455
414






Aug 1, 2011
445
514
468






Nov 1, 2011
504
582
530






Feb 1, 2012
571
659
601






Tetrachloride




Date
Low
High
Target

May 1, 2011
331
370
360






Aug 1, 2011
350
410
390






Nov 1, 2011
390
450
420






Feb 1, 2012
450
520
480






asymco




Date
Low
High
Target

May 1, 2011
281
374
374






Aug 1, 2011
295
393
393






Nov 1, 2011
334
445
445






Feb 1, 2012
353
470
470






PurpleApple




Date
Low
High
Target

May 1, 2011
370
450
410






Aug 1, 2011
415
510
460






Nov 1, 2011
450
550
500






Feb 1, 2012
500
600
550






Elmar




Date
Low
High
Target

May 1, 2011
340
380
360






Aug 1, 2011
360
420
390






Nov 1, 2011
400
470
430






Feb 1, 2012
450
530
475






ChasMac77




Date
Low
High
Target

May 1, 2011
370
430
400






Aug 1, 2011
420
490
455






Nov 1, 2011
470
560
515






Feb 1, 2012
550
700
625






Gregg Thurman




Date
Low
High
Target

May 1, 2011
320
400
360






Aug 1, 2011
360
450
405






Nov 1, 2011
400
500
450






Feb 1, 2012
470
570
520






JohnG




Date
Low
High
Target

May 1, 2011
327
360
350






Aug 1, 2011
335
400
375






Nov 1, 2011
365
430
405






Feb 1, 2012
400
495
465






macorange




Date
Low
High
Target

May 1, 2011
350
390
370






Aug 1, 2011
380
420
400






Nov 1, 2011
430
470
450






Feb 1, 2012
480
520
500






JDSoCal




Date
Low
High
Target

May 1, 2011
349
460
399






Aug 1, 2011
350
485
439






Nov 1, 2011
440
550
499






Feb 1, 2012
499
630
555






snoozzzer




Date
Low
High
Target

May 1, 2011
330
399
380






Aug 1, 2011
380
430
420






Nov 1, 2011
420
480
460






Feb 1, 2012
460
540
520






Apple II+




Date
Low
High
Target

May 1, 2011
364
475
444






Aug 1, 2011
408
533
499






Nov 1, 2011
467
609
570






Feb 1, 2012
511
668
625






deagol




Date
Low
High
Target

May 1, 2011
360
400
380






Aug 1, 2011
400
460
430






Nov 1, 2011
450
540
500






Feb 1, 2012
500
650
580

Robert Paul Leitao


Index updated 01/12/11 to include deagol's forecasts and target prices.

6 comments:

  1. Excellent work. An index like this is far more transparent than what gets published by the professional analysts

    ReplyDelete
  2. Horace:

    Thank you for the feedback. This index may be a useful guide for people tracking AAPL's performance and those who closely follow the company. It's an honor to host the index at Eventide.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Robert, you didn't include your targets.



    Mace

    ReplyDelete
  4. Mace:

    A link to my most recent price targets (posted 11/14/10) is linked in the body of the post. As the host of the index and the commentator on the numbers, I believe it's appropriate to post my estimates in a separate entry.

    I look forward to hosting your estimates in future updates to this index.

    Robert

    ReplyDelete
  5. May 1, 2011
    Low: $280
    High: $480
    Target $420

    August 1, 2011
    Low $280
    High $500
    Target $420

    November 1, 2011
    Low $450
    High $750
    Target: $460

    February 1, 2012
    Low: $500
    High $750
    Target: $550

    ReplyDelete
  6. The reason for my low end being really low is due to potential seasonality in the summer from broader market concerns. With such a massive rally in the markets, there is always the possibility of a summer sell-off.

    ReplyDelete