The Ever-Changing World Of Apple

On Saturday, December 27th, Apple’s first quarter of FY2015 drew to a close. While management has guided to revenue of between $63.5 billion and $66.5 billion in the period, the current Wall Street revenue consensus estimate of $66.46 billion is already pushing against the upper threshold of management’s revenue guidance range. 

Apple’s Global Expansion

Apple manages its business on a geographic basis. The graph below illustrates the regional revenue mix for the fiscal year ended in late September. 

Although in aggregate revenue rose a fairly modest 6.95% in the fiscal year, revenue growth by region varied widely with Greater China and Japan again delivering the fastest rates of growth. The graph below illustrates Apple’s revenue growth rates by region for the fiscal year.

Both Greater China and Japan delivered double-digit revenue growth rates in the period while Europe delivered revenue growth at a rate greater than the aggregate rate of growth for the company as a whole. The Americas region, Apple's largest revenue region, realized revenue growth of 3.95% in the fiscal year with negative growth in the Rest of Asia Pacific region.

Changes In Regional Revenue Reporting

Concurrent with the start of the December quarter (FQ1 2015), Apple is eliminating Retail as an independent revenue region. Results for the retail stores will be incorporated in the revenue totals for the geographic region in which the stores are located. For the year, Apple reported 437 retail stores of which 40% were located outside the United States. On a national basis with retail store revenue geographically assigned, the United States represented 37.7% of revenue and China represented 16.8% of revenue in FY2014. Japan may become a third national region to contribute 10% or more of Apple’s reported revenue. 

FY2015: Apple's Big Adventure

On Friday, November 28th, Apple’s share price closed the month’s trading at $118.93, up 9.9% from the opening price on November 3rd and up nearly 10.5% from the opening price on September 29th, the first trading day of the fiscal year. 

Recent analyst revenue upgrades and price target revisions have provided support for the share price. The current Wall Street consensus revenue estimate for the December quarter is $66.23 billion compared to management’s revenue guidance for the quarter of between $63.5 billion and $66.5 billion. However, the current revenue consensus estimate for FY2015 remains a decidedly conservative $210.68 billion and for FY2016 the revenue consensus estimate is a surprisingly low $223.02 billion.

In contrast, my revenue models suggest Apple may reach one-quarter trillion dollars in revenue in FY2016 following a revenue performance this fiscal year of $225 billion.

On November 19th Morgan Stanley’s Katy Huberty raised her firm’s price target from $115 to $126. She stated investors underestimate demand for the Apple Watch and is forecasting 30 million Apple Watches will be sold in CY2015. She also believes institutions remain underweighted in Apple shares. In my view, increasing institutional demand for shares will buoy the share price during the first six months of the current fiscal year.

On November 25th Aaron Rakers at Stifel Nicolaus raised his Apple price target to $130 from $115. On the same day Brian Blair reiterated his firm’s view iPhone unit sales will range between 72 million and 75 million in the December quarter. Although the share price may not go higher in a straight line, I expect a continuing series of analyst estimate revisions over the next several weeks to support the share price into Apple’s December quarter earnings release in late January. 

Looking Back

Although unit sales expectations for Apple’s iPhone 6 handsets are moving higher with strong evidence of a big market share shift in the high-end smartphone market from competitors to Apple, most analysts remain cautious on their FY2015 revenue and earnings per share estimates. 

The graph below illustrates Apple’s revenue mix for the fiscal year ended in September. In the 12-month period, the iPhone represented just over 55% of reported revenue. Combined, the iPhone and iPad lines represented over 72% of revenue in the period.